SLV Database #2

(Guest Post by Warren)


A quick update from the SLV database. I was looking at the SLV inventory over the last two weeks of April. I cobbed together this chart (click for larger view) which compares the closing price of SLV vs. the inventory held according to the ounces published. It's a bad graph, but one of my first composite charts so be kind.



The graph is curious because on the 20th of May, the number of bars held takes a big drop and then peaks again on the 27th April with the high in silver (the gap in the middle is the easter holiday).

I have always wondered about the bars which disappear and then show up again. It stands to reason that because the 1000-oz bars are quite heavy, that movement in and out of the vault will probably be more like allocations rather than actual shipping (as highlighted by Bron).

So using the 13th April bar list as a reference point, I set out to find out how many bars showing up in 27th April list, were already present in the 13th April list, with a temporary absence of leave on the 20th April (in between).

After crunching the numbers in the bar serial numbers database, I have an answer - 8.3 percent of the amount added to the inventory between 20th April and 27th April. i.e. between those dates, some 9,954,185 oz of silver was added to SLV, and of that amount 1,197,039.8 oz (8.3 pct) was already sitting in the vault on the 13th April (14 days before). The table in the database for those date ranges is called "SLV_Analysis" so you can check my maths if you want - the connection information for the database is here.

I used this exercise to cut my teeth on the data processing and I give no personal guarantee about any numbers, this exercise was about 5 hours of work. I'm happy to share any details if anyone is interested (and again, the data is all there if you want to check).

What to conclude? Not much - approximately 1197 bars probably never left the vault and went 'dark' for a few weeks while SLV shuffled its data around, reappearing 14 days later. Either that or those bars left the vault and then got redelivered within a few weeks. I am personally more inclined to think that they have shitloads of silver - more than you can imagine - and they shuffle the allocation as best as they see fit to manage the price and futures, all that stuff, to make lots of money from hapless investors. Certainly it's more likely a change of ownership registration than a physical move, but it means that we've got more hard work ahead to identify these dark pools of silver. If anyone out there has any comments that can enhance my understanding, please let me know your thoughts, many thanks.

NOTE: This analysis indicates the SLV Serial Bars data is about right. If it were claiming all the bars were brand new, that would be unusual, and if all the inventory showed up a second time, that would indicate shenanigans, but a 8.3% seems about right.


[Update: 2012]

Since this analysis, we got a bit more sophisticated. For a full list of all future articles in this series, please check out http://screwtapefiles.blogspot.com/p/bullion-bars-database.html

154 comments:

Trinity B said...

Re your post of 18 May:

I'm glad you're paying attention. My posts on the TF metals report are sincere, and I will do what I can, when I can.

A few points:

1. I am not a troll. I always leave clear and verifiable information. As you have seen, it is always correct. Those who followed my advice will have made money. I'm happy for them.

2. The information I leave will, of course, never be accurate to the cent. This has nothing to do with 'prosecutable information'. We have oversight of most of the big trades, but there are some hedge funds and central banks that are off our radar. This can push things further in one direction or the other than anticipated. The direction of travel is always correct, however.

Trinity B said...

3. I am, of course, not Blythe Masters (who is, incidentally, a very nice person: you should see all the money she gives to and raises for breast cancer charities, for example). But I may as well be her. Make of that whatever you like.

4. I'm not Sprott's daughter, either (from where the WB project originates). I have no personal financial agenda, and I am certainly not in the position of aiding sickening pump and dumps the like of which you've all just gone through.

5. If you're buying, make sure you have all your silver ready before midday (London time) on Tuesday. You'll get a nice surprise. I'll let you know if and when it's time to get off the train.

Big cuddles,

Trinster

Louis Cypher said...

Hi Trinity,
"I'm not Sprott's daughter, either (from where the WB project originates)"
Can you explain what you mean by this?
I confess I don't read the comments section of Turd's blog. Just too much reading.

Warren,
Great work as usual. This, I think largely dispels the theory of no silver in the SLV and definitely dispels the theory of large fish taking off with the Silver to Switzerland etc. to off load it to hapless investors at a later date.
Ready to ask for a helping hand to expand the database a little?

Robert LeRoy Parker said...

I'm holding back a tirade.

Louis Cypher said...

Speak your mind Robert.
BTW picked up on this post from ZH today.
Huge depository of books, software and training videos.
http://www.traders-library.com/
I hope these guys aren't paying per Meg downloaded or they are going to have a huge frickin' bill.

Warren James said...

Hi Louis, thanks - yes the more I work with the data the more difficult it is to assume any forgery - there is simply too much data present and every time we touch it, it holds up. Even stuff like the 'perfect internal duplicates' (which, btw - were ignored for the exercise above as they constitute less than 71,000 oz, approx. 0.0002% of total holdings) ... it's my opinion as a data monkey that the presence of these 'fuzzy' edges add legitimacy - simply because it would be expected in such a large data set and is usually an artefact of every database. It would be suspicious if there were zero internal perfect duplicates.

The database is a large effort - even though I've got some automated routines to help, I would welcome help from anyone but in terms of running a project I can't really devote too much time to it - I've got a day job and trying to set up a fledgling business. But I still believe the SLV/ETF repository holds the keys to what I'm looking for in terms of validating my silver investments so I will keep poking it, using my skills.

Possibly the thing which will extract the most value from the (growing) repository is the questions which can be asked. I would encourage anyone who has interest to register an idea they have, here: http://bullionbars.uservoice.com. Doesn't matter how good or bad the idea is, as others can also vote. 'what question do I have for the SLV data?', and then go to the database to get some answers. The difference with this exercise of course is that the conclusions are not mere conjecture - because the raw data is publicly available they can be mathematically debunked or ratified by anyone who has the time or concern to do so.

Warren James said...

@ Trinster, wow! A guest appearance at our humble blog! Thanks for stopping by - your info validates some of my theories about the recent price movements. The incredibly information-rich multi-layered information in each of your points ... I don't know where to start ... when I apply my intuitive forensics method to what you've written here I get lots of detail, including the changed structure of the Wynter Benton Group. Yes, please do give us tips about the next big price movements, we'll be listening.

Trinity, you should be aware that many do not acknowledge Wynter Benton and even fewer read our blog (though GM Jenkin's analysis on The value of the value of a bond should be on everyone's radar). These facts, along with your uncanny price calls, market knowledge and linguistic style serves to validate my thesis about your identity and from this perspective I will keep mining the Watchtower blog for your comments. Good stuff, please keep it up.

@ Robert LeRoy Parker, please keep your black hat* on - we need that. Just keep it civil and logical and the truth should bubble to the top in due course. I'll fill in some of your thoughts for you here - the claims that 'Trinity B' are making are largely unverifiable without inside knowledge (and this is frustrating). However, the writer also knows this and has a desire 'to be taken seriously' and seeks to validate their authenticity through calling market price / market movements. They also have some recommendations about when to buy, with the inference that traders can also benefit by listening to them (with the assumption it is being written primarily to assist their own goals). This should now start sounding pretty familiar.

Anyway, @ Louis, Trinity B has drawn a riddle connection between WB and Sprott - that might be the smoking gun you were trying to track down? Also note that Trinity B acknowledged Wynter Benton in past tense which suggests that the WB Group we knew is no longer operating (as they were previously).


* http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/De_Bono_Hats

Warren James said...

Oh, and Trinity - I for one appreciate the fact that you are wanting to help us little folk. Great stuff. And again thanks for visiting us here @ Screwtape Files. I have a digital scrapbook of most of your posts over at the WatchTower and I may dig them out for a special feature as time permits. You are correct, the pump and dump (which validates some of Costata's theories @ FOFOA) was pretty gut-wrenching.

Bron said...

I'm surprised the percentage of reappearing bars was not higher and I'd guess in a more systematic analysis over time you'll find it is higher.

Also, for those not aware of the economics of market making, ETF holdings are always a bit sticky and do not increase/decrease perfectly with the price. Because market makers incur costs when requesting creation of units or redeeming, in a general bull market they will tend to hold onto units in the expectation that they will be able to resell them later.

Louis Cypher said...

The call has gone out to Turd, SGS, and Harvey for help on the database

Louis Cypher said...

Oh, and Zerohedge

Louis Cypher said...

Warren, can you email me what you have on Trinity?
I love a mystery :)

Warren James said...

@Bron, agreed. Thanks for the comment.

@Louis, yes - sure will collate it tonight & send to you. re: outside help, not many will care to assist in any manner, as the data repository and our findings go against the accepted mantra of there being no silver in those ETF's.

i.e. we are officially in a unique minority position of 'they-have-the-silver' and 'wynter-benton-was-real'. We're going to draw the ire from many folk. Not that I care ... just sayin'.

But yeah, anyone interested, just register your ideas or suggestions here: http://bullionbars.uservoice.com/ and we'll see what interest/momentum we can create. As mentioned, next on the list are to start loading the other big silver ETF's data (and Perth Mint's list as well, once they update their list from the 5th May so that we have a sample size greater than 1).

Warren James said...

[ And for anyone wanting to take on 'loading data' or data design responsibilities, it's easy to give you special read-write permissions to sections of the database. We also have the tools to collaborate with a distributed development team. ]

GM Jenkins said...

Greetings from Miami, gentlemen.
Great work Warren!
and thank you, Trinity B, for spilling the beans on Larisa Sprott, as well as for your heads up for Tuesday.

Louis Cypher said...

TrinityB said "If you're buying, make sure you have all your silver ready before midday (London time) on Tuesday. You'll get a nice surprise. I'll let you know if and when it's time to get off the train."

Tuesday is usually an up day but if we have an unusually high up day on Tuesday this would lend some credence to what TrinityB is saying.
With the current beat down today we should get a bit of a slingshot effect.
However, looking at the SLV we are oversold on the RSI and MACD looks like it's getting ready to cross over (not tomorrow).
A nice surprise to me would be a move more than a buck 20. That sort of move would put me beyond merely curious about Trinity.

GM Jenkins said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
GM Jenkins said...

Or is it Juliana Sprott? Idk, Larisa looks more game for bodybag analogies. Two smokin hotties though, wow. Maybe I could test Trinity's claim, Warren style, by going through statements by either of these girls looking for a convergence in voice or style.

GM Jenkins said...

Good point, Louis, that if someone was gonna fake it, Tuesday would've been the day to pick. On the other hand, she did say London time, which raises the specificity. Regardless, I placed a market order for AGQ after sitting this out for awhile. My preference function, as a behavioral economist might put it, skews towards preferring regret at money lost to money not won.

Louis Cypher said...

These can't be Eric's kids. Wayyyy too good looking to have anything to do with Eric's gene pool :)

Louis Cypher said...

BTW I reached out to Harvey, Yukon, ZH, SGS and Turd to run a help wanted on the database.

I am going to ask the KD as well.

Joe Jost said...

Louis Cypher said...

Hi Trinity,
"I'm not Sprott's daughter, either (from where the WB project originates)"

------------------------------
This post (http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/05/three-times-in-five-days.html?showComment=1304379337612#c3126520066000565429) might put some context on Trinity's words above.

Louis Cypher said...

Thanks Joe,
I get the inference that she or he is trying to make that Sprott is the one moving the market. Something we have suspected here but unable to prove. I also KNOW Wynter_Benton has nothing to do with Sprott.
We don't know who WB is but we know who they aren't unless one of the girls is doing something without Dad's knowledge.
WB stirred up a hornets nest in the community more than anyone cares to admit.

Louis Cypher said...

GM, We shall see. Going to be buying some stuff today myself anyway.

Brian said...

i have been following you all from the beginning, i really dont post much cause i really dont feel that i have much to offer. but i have been reading through ANOTHER (THOUGHTS), FOA and FOFOA and after reading them i get the feeling that SGS and TF and many others sort of have it wrong when it comes to the COMEX and JPM. i actually feel like they have the whole COMEX wrong and what its true purpose is. im not a trader, really just a doctor trying to preserve what i have. so i dont understand markets like you all. but im also not stupid. i get the impression that GLD and SLV are where the GIANTS come to trade and move PM's around. the market is there for the GIANTS to trade without effecting the price of the PM's and also buy them at a discounted price. its like a shadow trading platform in a way, things are done behind the curtain. the LONGS are there to buy out far ahead to keep the price down for them, cause its better to collect and buy over a long period of time rather than all at once and drive the price through the roof. and all JPM is is a middle man for the GIANTS cause thats the only way for them to buy from the CB's. does that sound about right?

Warren James said...

Hi Brian, yes it seems to be something like that. Price management seems to be the order of the day - can't have the general populace thinking that Fiat is no good as a store of wealth.

SGS and Turd are correct - to use an analogy from ANOTHER ... if the paper bids for SILVER (through derivatives markets) were forced to turn into real bids for physical then there is not enough metal.

Freegold will force paper bids for GOLD into bids for physical ... but there seems to be no real mechanic/need to do this for silver so in theory the game continues ad-infinitum, while the price of silver marches to the rythms of its derivatives chains irrespective of what happens in the physical markets (see GM's chart for this analysis).

It is only when folk like Sprott come in and "distort the market perception" that the game gets a bit rattled. It doesn't mean silver isn't a good investment though ...

Something like that anyway. It gets a bit clearer for me every day. Thanks for taking the road with us.

Louis Cypher said...

Kid D has posted something already. Thanks KD much appreciated. We might be all coming at this with different agendas but its great to see some community spirit.

Swampfox said...

Warren,

First time to your BLOG. Fascinating stuff. Thanks to KD for the link to this. I remeber as a kid reading Ayn Rand for the first time and encountering the pound of sugar concept. Reality exists and as such a pound of sugar exists - the problem of course is our ability to measure such a thing - our perception - the pound of sugar - like the truth of most things - is difficult to get a bead on.

Keep up the great work.

Kid Dynamite said...

Louis - I sent you an email, but I have a feeling it was to a fake email address... email me via my blog if you want me to resend it to you...

I enjoy watching Warren try to work through this on his own in real time - he was clearly skeptical of SLV at first, but is kinda "proving" to himself that it may be/ probably is legit- although it's clear he's not all the way there yet (he hasn't convinced himself completely, I mean), and I encourage him to keep trying to disprove his own theories - THAT is how people get smarter: by trying to find out what's WRONG with their thesis, not by seeking out groupthink cheerleading confirmations.

For me, that's what's been the most frustrating thing in reading the silver blogs and watching the nonsense perpetuate: you can hang out in a chat room with a bunch of people ranting nonsense and confirming your belief, but it doesn't make it any more true, and just makes it more likely to blow up on you in the end. You can make up stuff about how SLV owns "paper silver" or that GLD's gold is on swap from the Bank of ENgland and can be recalled at any time (utter and complete NONSENSE), but repeating it in a template blog post every day doesn't make it any more true. Chasing people who try to point out facts away from your comment sections doesn't make it any more true. (I'm not talking about you guys, it should be obvious who the reference is to, here)

The reason the Silver Bugs hate SLV so much is because if they agreed that SLV actually had the silver, then the majority of their claims about a lack of physical silver in the marketplace would go up in smoke and they'd be left with a false prophet... On the other hand, once you realize how it works, and understand how the industry has shifted, you realize that it's not a big deal that COMEX's silver hoard has declined, since SLV's silver hoard has increased by 5-7x the amount of COMEX's decline! The inventory has shifted from COMEX to SLV"s vaults...

anyway...

Louis Cypher said...

BTW does anyone have the physical addresses for the SLV warehouses? I don't now why they are being so secretive it's not like anyone would risk robbing the place in case they got there and the place was just full of London Wharf rats.

Brian said...

Warren, Louis, GM, everybody else - thank you. i really do appreciate this site and you all here. i really do learn a lot. sometimes i have so many things going through my head it gets all messed up though. but this is sort of how i look at the COMEX. let me know if this makes sense though or if i have anything wrong.

i vision the Bullion Banks (JPM) sort of like a restaurant and the big traders (Giants) who want to purchase PM's at a discount over a long period of time, come to JPM and order from their menu (baskets). the COMEX is sort of like the kitchen (storage) where JPM can come to get AU/AU, but only the BB's can get it from here, or at least you have to go through a BB to get it from the COMEX. the COMEX though can also act as a Market Place to trade futures and options on. in a restaurant when an order is placed there is a ticket sent to the kitchen (storage) and these tickets are allowed to float around in the market place for trade (so basically its just a paper (cash) game and no physical is meant to leave to those playing the paper (cash) game).

the actual Allocated PM's are held in the BB's (this stuff belongs to big traders), the BB is just the custodian for its Clients (big traders). but its the Un-allocated PM's that are hanging out in the COMEX for trade, the transactions though are settled with debits and credits, but having a credit doesnt entitle you to PM's. and basically the Client of the BB is an unsecured creditor.

when there is an outflow of PM's from the COMEX what is actually going on is the Client reclaiming their un-allocated PM and making it an allocated PM to be added to that account within the BB.

does this all sound about right? or am i missing something. cause i get the impression that regardless of the amount of contracts that are out there, there really is no physical involved, its just a paper game. please set me straight, cause this is what im gathering from ANOTHER and FRIENDS.

Brian said...

wow, i just read through what i wrote, it sort of sounds a little half hazzard but its what i have going on in my head. hope it makes some sense.

Brian said...

one last thing. i notice a lot of people confussed that the miners arent doing very well. i really dont understand with but i got the impression from what i have read that the reason the miners might not be doing so well is that what they have or have not mined yet has already been sold. for example what they may mine a year out from now has already been sold by the BB's lets say months ago. could this be the reason??

Louis Cypher said...

Hi Brian,
We have discussing the miner performance the last few weeks and we are no closer to an answer than you are. Based on a few charts I think we are close to breakout.
Big however and but, please read through the articles and play devils advocate. That would be the best advice I could give you.
The main reason appears to be lack of appetite risk from the general public and everyone is frickin' broke except the 1% of the economy who think everything is just great.

Xaritas said...

Very nice work on the database. I wonder if it is possible to correlate increases in the SLV inventory with drawdowns of the COMEX registered inventory over the past several years.

If you've ever done logistics and physical security for sensitive items, you know it is a major pain. I always wondered why the COMEX wouldn't use the creation/redemption mechanism of SLV (and maybe GLD too?) to outsource this extremely annoying problem. It's just good business. Kid Dynamite appears to confirm that.

Yukon Cornelius said...

Hey guys. Awesome work your doing Warren. Just want you to know I stopped in before posting to my own blog. I think what you're doing here is that unique - that important.

Here's a thought. What if you could corner the market by having folks corner it for you? What I mean to say is the vault custodians hold the metal and retail gives them the money to buy more. I think the great misconception is that the big banks (JPM, HSBC) give a shit about where the price of silver, gold, and soon copper are at. The truth is they keep enough shorts so that if the price tanks they make a killing, and if the price skyrockets they hold the actual metal and more crack legal professionals than most countries. Good luck getting it from them if you're just a retail player. The big surprise is going to be, "Haha, suckers we actually HAVE the metal we say we do." JPM bought a shitton of copper and no one thinks twice about it even though we know they're starting up a physical copper ETF. The most likely answer is they HAVE the metal.

To me it seems that the big players (giants if you will) are using it as their bank. As any good trading house though they're covering both short and long so again they could give a shit about the price. It really is the ultimate play and it makes so much sense that I'm positive that that's exactly what they're doing.

I hope you're able to follow this. I might have been out in the sun and drinking the past oh... let's just say hours. *grin*

Warren James said...

@ Xaritas - Thanks. Yes, with enough data we could start drawing some historical correlations. Trouble is getting the historical SLV data - if anyone has any stray serial bar number pdf's downloaded during 2006/2007/2008/2009 please feel free to submit them.

@Yukon, thanks. Yes, I think you are in the money (sic) with those thoughts. You'll be pleased to know that FOFOA backs your idea - this text from an email discussion a few weeks back:

FOFOA: "... My focus is mostly on GLD and SLV as "CB-sized stockpiles" of
physical metal that, while "owned" by the public, are under the control of the banks. In other words, by their very pricing structure, the banks can take out or put in metal at any time with very little cost and almost no effect on the price of the underlying. And they have no carrying cost because that is completely picked up by the shareholders. It's a win-win for the banks; their own private CB that they
control. But there is a key difference between the two, that being the difference between silver and gold. ...
"

p.s. Thanks everyone for your thoughts and contributions here, even including the 'pat-on-the-head' from you, Kid Dynamite.

victorthecleaner said...

I don't think it is a big surprise that COMEX inventory ('registered' category) is declining. This is just because silver has been in backwardation for most of the year.

Here is how I think about it. If you are a COMEX dealer, you have a certain capital to employ, and you are trying to manage your inventory in such a way that you need to move as little physical as possible. Simply because that is what is expensive. This basically means you need to keep as much inventory as you can afford.

Now 'to afford' is the key word. Say you start with 100m US$ in capital. You want to get some physical silver without assuming any price risk. So you buy spot silver and sell the future. This is a synthetic swap. You basically lend your cash to somebody else and take physical silver as the collateral for the loan. This collateral is the inventory you operate with.

As long as silver is in contango, you earn interest by doing this, and you can use it to cover other operating expenses. So you can basically hold as much inventory as your business requires.

But with silver in backwardation, you need to pay interest in order to keep the inventory. This eliminates one source of your funding. You therefore need to compromise and work with a smaller inventory than you would normally like.

I think this is the reason why the COMEX 'registered' inventory is shrinking.

The fun question is how this looks like from the point of view of an owner of silver. With silver in contango, they could borrow US$ (from the dealer) offering silver as the collateral and invest the borrowed US$ elsewhere (and even save the storage expenses for the silver). With silver in backwardation ... why don't they lend their silver anymore?

Victor

Warren James said...

Hi Victor - that question is beyond my pay grade, but I'll have a stab ... maybe they don't lend it because it's more profitable to put it into SLV and get the shareholder to carry the storage cost and where ownership of the physical silver functions as the casino license (aka whipsaw)?

MH said...

If you guys need help writing database queries/procedures I am willing to help out... That's what I do at my day job so I may be of some value.

Tesla said...

@Trinity B.

Thanks again doll

victorthecleaner said...

Warren,

well, if you own silver and silver is in contango, you can use your silver as the collateral in order to borrow US$. (If you sell your silver at spot and purchase a futures contract in order to buy it back later, neither party has any price risk) Since you have such a good collateral, you can borrow US$ very cheaply.

This year, however, silver is in backwardation. So someone even pays you interest to take their US$ loan, just because they are so keen to get your silver as the collateral. Isn't this cool?

What is going on here?

Since backwardation has been in place for most of the year 2011, we can rule out a short term squeeze in the swap market. There is enough silver in the market, arbitrage takes place, and still silver is in backwardation. How can this happen?

Let's see what makes up the contango:

(risk free interest rate on a US$ loan) + (risk premium on the US$ component of the swap) - (carrying charges for US$) - (risk free interest rate on a silver loan) - (risk premium on the silver component) + (carrying charges for the silver)

Here, the carrying charges for US$ are zero as is the risk free interest rate on a silver loan (silver does not pay any dividend). So the only way the contango can be negative is a risk premium on the silver component of the swap. In other words, the market prices in the risk that the silver is not returned.

Victor
PS: If you click on my name, you will find a more detailed article on the backwardation issue.

Louis Cypher said...

MH,
Awesome. Warren is on the other side of the planet I'm sure he will contact you shortly.

Tesla,
I suggest you read the thread here. Trinity said expect something interesting @ 12.00. I said I expect the price to be up today by $1.20. That doesn't mean I have inside information. It simply means I looked at the charts and saw a pattern. Sometimes it's that easy.....
Nothing special. No insider info. No Chicken teeth or cigarette butt tea required.

Trinity ,
You will have to do better. A whole lot better if you expect to be taken seriously.

Trinity B said...

Louis

1. I don't have to 'do' anything. Don't forget that.

2. I did not say, 'expect something interesting at 12:00'. I meant (and I think this is clear from what I wrote): if you are wanting to get back in the silver market, make sure you do it before midday on Tuesday. I think you would agree that that was good advice.

3. Silver is up $1.49 since yesterday. That is 4.25%. More since my post on Sunday. If you do not find that 'interesting', then I am sorry. If you want a better return than that in a few days, then I suggest you go play with the penny stocks. Don't lose your shirt, there's a good chap...

Trinity B said...

6. If you want to have a pissing contest about cents or what is 'interesting' then go ahead. But you'll be doing it on your own.

I posted here because of the intelligent discussion about SLV, which is not far from the real situation. But if you're going to get shitty about a perfectly good, profitable call that no-one else was making, then I'll find another forum for what I want to do.

Shame - I'm sure the traffic to this site went up more than a smidgen since Sunday...

Little kiss,

Trinster x

Trinity B said...

(never mind the contradiction in what you said yesterday: 'A nice surprise to me would be a move more than a buck 20')

4. I called the bottom before Turd, Trader Dan, SGS, Kitco, and everyone else. I said that now was the time to go long. I was right. Of course, I knew that I would not be wrong. There was no gamble involved.

Trinity B said...

5. Your colleague is correct. I am not really interested in giving calls. I do indeed do it to provide credibility for the important things about the silver market that I want to discuss. I was also being nice: retail is scared following the plunge, and I helped some of them get some of their money back. I will also try to stop them losing it again.

SilverIsKing said...

Trin B,

Not sure if you saw my post on Turd's blog yesterday but I extended an offer to you if silver finished better than +$1.25 today.

In the "Surviving Monday" thread, I wrote:
------------------------------------------------
"I'll buy dinner for Trinity B at any place of her (it is a she, no?) choosing in NYC if silver closes above $36.25 in tomorrow's access market.

Whaddya say TB?

Per Se? 11 Madison Park? Gramercy Tavern? Le Bernardin?

Your pick. Just give us $36.25...lol."
------------------------------------------------
Well, I am a man of my word so it's up to you.

Brian said...

1.Trinity - im really just a lay person trying to hang on to what i have. i have read several other blogs and all i can say is that you were really the only one that had a positive outlook on today. i read your post on sunday and waited to see what would happen. and you where right in my book.

i just hope that im making the right decision to store what i have in gold and silver. keep the posts coming though, i love the info and the drama in the PM market. who knows, maybe one day i will take a stab at it.

Brian said...

Trinity - im not a trader or investor. but i am fascinated by the PM market. i try to pick up PM's whenever i can. as a request though, where ever you chose to write or whatever blog you go to, please clue me or us in. cause im willing to listen and learn. not necessarily to invest but i really am interested in where this is all going and what the end game will look like. so i truly hope that you stick around. thank you for your insight.

Tesla said...

@ Trinity B

I think you ROCK - 'BIG kiss'
I definitely benefited from your call and am grateful for the help!

AGoldhamster said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Yukon Cornelius said...

Trinity,

You said that, "Your colleague is correct. I am not really interested in giving calls. I do indeed do it to provide credibility for the important things about the silver market that I want to discuss."

I'm not nearly as interested in silver calls as much as I am in the important things about the silver market that you want to discuss. I'd like to hear what you have to say. You don't need to make silver calls to have folks listen. Enough are paying attention now to get whatever information you want out.

As I said, I'm definitely interested in what you have to say about the silver market. What's the story?

AGoldhamster said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Fade2Black said...

@ AGoldhamster

+1

AGoldhamster said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Robert LeRoy Parker said...

Deja vu of a nightmare I had...

SilverIsKing said...

Trin B-

(1) "If you're buying, make sure you have all your silver ready before midday (London time) on Tuesday. You'll get a nice surprise."

--Thank you.

(2) "I'll let you know if and when it's time to get off the train."

--Thank you in advance.

AGoldhamster said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Warren James said...

Trinity, I am seriously impressed. I also guess that the price movement is designed to move the Algos in the desired direction for the next week or so.

We'll be continuing the SLV analysis. I'll also keep adding to my "Trinity B" library which was started a while back .. Hammy is right, your words are sharp as a knife.

You're also right - according to the stats the traffic spiked after you posted. p.s. our intentions here are also well stated and it is not about attracting an audience. oh and, Louis Cypher can be a bit of a devil sometimes as well ;)

Robert LeRoy Parker said...

Everybody in the world has seen Christopher Nolan’s The Dark Knight, right?

“This is how crazy batman has made Gotham” said the Joker after he brutally murdered a civilian vigilante.

Well, lets wind the clocks back five months. Gold and silver peaked at year-end and were going through a typical light correction in January. Seemingly out of nowhere, an anonymous character(s) perked the interest of the precious metals blogosphere.

Wynter Benton captivated our imagination with a tale of insider experience, professional betrayal, and an elaborate plot for revenge. How could we not be taken in by the story that not only orbited our area of interest and investment, but was also written to fit a script with a beginning, middle, and end?

We watched, followed, and profited as Wynter narrated the story for three months of our lives. It was glorious! We will all be rich because JP Morgan has finally messed with the wrong people! This will be payback for our underwater homes, brutalized 401Ks, IRAs, and Roths, not to mention the agonizing stress that accompanied the financial crisis of 2008. We are going to beat them at their own game! Hallelujah!

And as silver steamrolled to new highs on a daily basis, Wynter’s every word gained credibility and was amplified throughout the information super highway. But then just like she appeared, Wynter signed off, perhaps never to be heard from again… Where did she go? Why doesn’t she come back we thought as silver continued its stampede upward. Well it doesn’t matter anyway, she must be working her plan; look how silver continues to gain and the comex inventory continues to lose. There is no way out of this for the Morgue the animated bears reassured us. Buy silver and you can’t lose, that’s all there is to it.

But then, as seen so often in charts displaying exponential growth patterns, the sudden collapse was upon us. Where is Wynter now we thought? Why didn’t she warn us? Silver will bounce back; it has to, look at the inventory. Wynter was on our side right? Who the hell was Wynter Benton anyway? I can’t believe I put faith into an anonymous blogger telling stories that would make Gordon Gekko proud. Maybe JP Morgan is actually net long silver…

And so here we stand, no longer united in our belief that silver will relentlessly march higher. Division has taken hold, some standing firm at one blog, others holding there ground at another. Silver will rebound sharply! It’s all downhill from here! It will form a base I tell you! If only we had a leader with inside information!

In steps anonymous insider number two, Trinity B.

Joe Jost said...

Great post by Trinity B at Turd's: http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/05/really-good-day.html?showComment=1306280380954#c4635675536530820870

The part I like best:

... "But please don't bracket me with wanker Hamster or stoned Vamoose. That is not my style of criticism."

Warren James said...

@Joe - Ah, that explains the hasty departure of Mr AGoldHamster - that had me scratching my head for a few minutes there.

@ Trinity - I didn't bracket you with him I was just agreeing that you were .. 'sharp as a knife' i.e. packed with detail, definition and to the point (backing my comment earlier on your style). Your words stand out in the crowd.

You're welcome to write articles here if you want the platform. However it seems you have Turd's attention at this point and you can probably achieve most of your at the WatchTower which has considerably more foot traffic. Good luck and please do come back any time, you made my week ;)

Warren James said...

@ Robert LeRoy Parker - the only advice I can give you is to take a chill pill and step up to the plate again, we're men, right?. Wynter Benton never made any calls past $37/oz, they also didn't owe anybody anything, same with Trinity B. Where I will agree with you is that the silver market is vastly different to the one which we are recently led to believe by (take your pick of silver cheerleaders). This is what we're trying to do here - separate fact from fiction.

@ MH, thank you for the offer for help with the database - please send me an email at bullionbars (at) hotmail.com, and we can get talking.

Robert LeRoy Parker said...

I live for my dream and a pocket full of gold.

Warren James said...

for those who came in late: [[ I posted before I've had a morning coffee - Trinity was originally targeted (bracketed) by Turd in this post at the watchtower. Trinity has asked him to edit the post to remove the derogatory reference (ref: Joe's link above) and inferred more disclosure in return. That's pretty cool. Turd was decidedly receptive so I hope he plays ball. ]]

@ RLP, cherish your dreams and visions - they are more valuable than gold or silver.

Brian said...

i really like this blog, and i hope Trinity sticks around here. the discussion has a higher intelligence here and i appreciate that.

Xaritas said...

Yukon Cornelius said...
Trinity,

... I'm not nearly as interested in silver calls as much as I am in the important things about the silver market that you want to discuss... I'm definitely interested in what you have to say about the silver market. What's the story?


Seconded. The people who need the comic book version will never be convinced by a couple of good calls. They will write them off as EE reverse psyops, one level deeper through the looking glass, double plus ungood in order to maintain their internal narrative. So just lay it out.

ultarnerd said...

Dale T aka ultarnerd
After reading some of the peoples blogs here you have no real idea.
Look people you surprise me, you actually do not even suspect a thing.
JPMorgan in at least part, owns both GLD and SLV I forget the detail's, and has been caught and settled out of court, for charging storage fees for physical metals it did not actually have.You get it they were caught and yet people here do not even have the sense to realize how unlikely is it for them to suddenly become honest when they set up GLD and SLV where they do not specifically charge a storage fee based on weights, just now not specific enough to get them charged again.
Come on people if you are buying gold or silver anywise, why but why, in the world would you chose these two when you are paying the same price anywise, they are not giving you the gold so why take the extra chance.There are good ones not so suspect however usually not as cheap.Clue no 2 you get what you pay for,and often much less.
Do not take the chance with these two unless you are using them for day trading.
I have read a huge amount of this subject and I would not touch either of these with a 20 foot pole held by someone else a mile away.I could say more but it would take too long to type it all up and most do not want to read a really long posts.

ben.roberts13 said...

Yukon Cornelius said...

"To me it seems that the big players (giants if you will) are using it as their bank. As any good trading house though they're covering both short and long so again they could give a shit about the price. It really is the ultimate play and it makes so much sense that I'm positive that that's exactly what they're doing."

The present global fiat monetary system demands that gold and silver be suppressed. It could not otherwise exist in it's present state. It would have long ago collapsed under its own rotten weight were this not so. JPM, other big banks, and world's central banks must control the price of PM's in order to sustain and maintain for as long as possible their fiat ponzi scheme.

The premise of your theory ignores so much monetary history, hierarchy, and fundamentals that it is barely worth responding to it all. The idea the giant players in the PM market could care less about the price of PM's is absurd. They deeply are concerned every day about the price and their survival depends upon that concern. To do something this profound on a global scale, i.e. replace gold and silver as the global monetary system after five thousand years, with with a pure fiat paper system, is unprecedented in all of human history and the biggest change in the history of money the world has ever seen. The consequences of this one fact alone has implications of such a broad and profound nature on every living human being on the planet and that as such, few will ever grasp or comprehend the exact sweeping nature of this crime.

The EFT's of every kind are part of the manipulation mechanism and process. To not understand this is to miss the biggest picture and the huge historical context within which all of this has taken place. Regardless of the daily mechanics of GLD, SLV,and the Comex/LBMA they are all an intrinsic part of the manipulative process and that, in my humble opinion, is an absolute indisputable fact within the context of this whole global monetary system.

Warren James said...

Apologies for the noise - I have reinstated ultarnerd's post, and removed my own critique. In an example of searching for the truth, I was able to track down his website - not an easy task as he had the URL to his own website wrong. His website and registration details verifies his story and style - which although confrontational, appears sincere and it tripped my inbuilt spam filter.

Ultarnerd, my apologies. Take care. But be careful of reading claims which suggest that they don't have the silver. Here we're discussing the possibilities that they do have the silver - lots of it - and that they are using it to exploit the masses.

Right, now, I will sit down and shut up, go back to my database for more clues. One of the next steps will be the loading of more historical data from 2010 and the addition of data from ETF Securities - you can look out for that in my database post #3 next month. Cheers, all. -- Warren

ultarnerd said...

Wow ben.roberts13 your pot is like a breath of fresh air.
Some ironies I see.There are some people that will actually lose sleep if their fire insurance ran out and yet not have even 1 silver coin, nuda nothing,not one trace of insurance against a currency crisis, none at all.Yet we have people that accept paper gold and silver as a paper currency crisis insurance and yet that's almost as bad as a paper factory buying more paper as a fire insurance.There is a real chance that that paper gold could turn out to be like buying fire insurance that's not actually fire insurance at all but a contract to buy and sell fire insurance.
Sorry about my posts getting deleted I am trying very hard to keep people from getting burnt.
And like I say I have read a huge amount on this subject and have to say something here.

Another worry I have with all this paper silver and gold that I have come to call shenanigans gold as it so seams all the sort of stuff you would expect of a dishonest leprechaun as you never really know whats really involved.
Here is a biggie, they are now actually set up in a way that they can literally collapse the paper prices of gold and silver resulting in a hyper backwardation where the physical metals go to the moon and you get only payed in the collapsed paper prices meaning they make big money paying you only pennys.What I mean is they are actually not only now able to make money but they are set up to do it almost if not totally legally.Those contracts such as COMEX have small print to cash settle alto it was a bit indirect last time I read about it.Do note this wont happen until there is no more " the longer the game the greater the gain" as the big collapse can only happen just the once, then the fraud gets exposed so be careful here.Either get the physical or make very sure the ETF actually do actually keep the physical and for all the same cost anywise why not the extra security of outside the US too.I mentioned a few in my original posts about who not to trust and why so request the post if you want. I remember two ETFs e-gold and another I can not remember that were put out of business or almost put out, in ways that looked a lot like if they were not US located would not have been bothered.These services allowed gold to be used like Pay Pal etc and were so good cheep etc all, that it was a competing currency for the US dollar.Other sites have also noticed the extreme hostility towards competing currencies especially when they are that good, so its not just my observation but I did lose a tiny bit on money due to the scandal at e-gold.

ultarnerd said...

Thanks Warren James
Ok to clarify I do not really know if SLV or GLD actually some of the metals or at least if they have most of them, I just mostly have reason to suspect they may not actually own those metals.
Last I read they have it on loan from the LBM using peoples money as collateral and that the owners can request the metals back whenever they want.Something about it belonging to Arabs because for example all the Chinese take their gold to their own shores.But like I say its why I like to call all that paper gold and silver shenanigans gold because you never really know what sort of creative shenanigans are possible here.I tend to think of a leprechaun named Shenanigan showing you a pile of either someone else's gold or a bunch of lead bricks painted gold and some nice convincing paperwork if only to show to the inspectors of whom could even be working for the leprechaun.

Sometimes Harvey gets it wrong but he has a lot of truth too or at least that I believe is true.
http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/

And here is a lesser known site having some real traders talking.I only post there occasionally because they usually know more than me so I cant contribute much.They got started when a lot of their posts were being deleted on the original Marketwatch site so started their own.I still suspect one of the people on the original Marketwach site might have been movement payed to talk gold and silver down and was doing a lot of the deleting.

http://marketwatching.freeforums.org/index.php

Look for the most recent posts as the stuff gets old fast.

ultarnerd said...

Sorry I meant "government" not movement, as where I say been movement payed, I meant "government payed".Sometimes I am too fast with spell check.

Warren James said...

Dale, you are tripping my 'disinformation agent' tripometer - since as you know it's not the validity of the argument which is relevant, it's about the memetic volume in front of eyeballs which is key. Your site even references the book 'Manufactured Consent' and I can tell that you are way smarter than what you are letting on.

I have sent an email to your email address which is on your website (link above). If you don't reply to it (by email) within 24 hours, I will remove your material from this stream. If the nbnet address is no longer valid, you can provide an alternate one.

ultarnerd said...

An extra thanks Warren James I did not know I had my web site wrong.Will fix it soon, but I probably should not worry to much as I probably only get a few visitors a year now due to the way I neglected it.Great stuff to add just lacked the time, cost me money and makes nothing and my software is a pain to the point of chasing me away.
But will probably be great for those of us buying silver etc all and it tells where to find scrap and how much you can get in PMs.
Think I will put out an add to buy those old washing machine timers as they got almost 3.00 of silver in the older ones, most likely to be junked.Buy em cheap when the price goes up I get more return on the dollar when it then pays more to recover.Will continue researching for example, how to remove silver plate and got a new process to try using sulfur and then sodium chlorate.Might not work tho but the acid is to hard to get and expensive now.

Warren James said...

No Dale - the website address you left when you posted on Harvey's site on the 28th December last year, was wrong.

By the way, your memetic signature gives you away. You need to work on that. But then this account you're using was especially chosen right?

Again, if you don't reply (by email) to my email sent to your website email address, then I'm going to remove your material. Which would defeat your objective, right? Bring it.

ultarnerd said...

Hi Warren I took a look and you are right and I cant edit it so its stuck with the wrong URL.Really I kind of want to be as public as possible as I used to post on and on about an alternative theory in physics and sort of wanted to keep everything totally public.No money in it but for historical reasons one wants to keep the source of such original ideas well known.Only managed to become the most ignored crank on Usenet, I assume because no one could really say where it was wrong and believe me they will flame you relentlessly for posting silly nonsense.Easier to ignore me and who would want to stater their reputations on something like that.

But its a great theory and finally explains how our universe got here in an intuitively understandable way with no conflicts and is subject to falsification i.e. experimental testing.Occam's Razor favors it.

The one thing I have noticed on the forum I posted in one of my posts, here above, is that a lot of the traders there were well aware of the risks in dealing in paper gold and silver.They frequently pointed out that they loved the profits but in the end needed to get much of that money into physical as most did not trust the paper.They often referred to the whole thing as a game of musical chairs where everyone is bidding on the same piece of gold.I watched as many of them made fortunes in these tradings and by believing the whole thing was manipulated, did really well at it. I was getting good at guessing too by using the same assumptions but I was just to afraid to try it myself.I always worried that just as soon as I actually get into it the whole paper thing it would collapse and I would get stuck with the worthless or near worthless paper bag with the word gold printed on it.
Besides I did not have enough money to invest in both the physical and the paper at the same time and that you need to do the fast and economical trades with.For a while all they needed to do was wait for another treasuries auction then buy gold just before or during the auctions as they assumed the powers that be i.e. TPTB would drive prices down to heard people into treasuries and then after they would sell the gold back into cash and then wait for another rinse and repeat by TPTB and for a while it actually worked.Assumption or not it was working for them.I stood by missing out while I watched them rake in the money.
But I would be very afraid to do it now as I just do not see it all lasting that much longer but then again I have been saying this for about 2 years now.

Even lost a bet with a friend that silver would reach 50.00 an ounce.Got another going with him now for 75.00 an ounce silver before this Christmas but I am now starting worry I will be wrong again.Never but never underestimate the people of those who own the printing press and 100 years of people being taught that only unbacked paper can be money.How many people have I heard say that you cant eat gold what good is it, yea but they never say you cant eat money what good is it.

GM Jenkins said...

79 comments! What a day to leave the virtual world for the real.

Much thanks to Trinity B, in proper obeisance to whom I have arranged for the sacrifice of 100 heads of cattle.

Not sure why our fearless leader, Louis Cypher, remains unimpressed by Trinity's skill at prognostication, but then his evidentiary standards have always been second to none. I thought sending my resume for an opening here at Screwtape Files was just a formality, but he went through the thing with a fine-tooth comb, going so far as to call me out on not actually knowing sanskrit by asking, in sanskrit, whether mixed martial arts really was one of my hobbies, after which he wrestled me into a rear naked choke and made me promise not to bluff my credentials ever again.

Warren James said...

Ultarnerd, thank you for rising to the challenge (received your email). You win. Your neuro-lingustic programming skills are just too good. I could write a book on the moves you just did.

Morning GM Jenkins (classic), yeah its been a big day.

Yukon Cornelius said...

BenRoberts13,

Even though I was pretty sloshed at the time I wrote that I think there's more to my points which you dismissed.

First explain to me why the big banks give a shit about the price of the underlying metal. I can give you tons of reasons why they don't, but I'm going to let you do a bit of thinking here. Does your coin dealer give a shit about the spot price of silver or gold? Mine doesn't. Why would they? They make money as long as there are sellers and buyers. Do I care about the "price" of gold and silver if I hold the gold and silver? What about cash and currency? Do I care about it if it all comes through me, if in effect I create it? You're drastically underestimating the intelligence and depths of this con. The ultimate con has you winning regardless of outcome. You really think that even if they did collapse the price or raised it to the moon it would matter at all to them? Think about it and tell me why.

This part, "The ETF's of every kind are part of the manipulation mechanism and process" is where you're right, but probably not in the way you think. ETF's are inherently bullish for the underlying asset, this is indisputable. It also allows for the underlying asset to be easily gathered and hoarded by the controlling entity of the ETF. So thinking about this, what might we discern is really going on here?

Let me end this with an open ended scenario and tell me your thoughts on it. Let's say you knew that the end of fiat was here simply due to the amount of out of control debt/credit. You want to get as many real assets as you can as quickly as you can right? Well, let's see, just thinking as me myself here. I'd want to get land and houses, precious metals, work into base metals. In effect, I'd want to get absolutely as much real assets as I could while I could because I knew the end was near.

Real Estate crisis in U.S. resulting in foreclosure with ownership reverting to whom?

Formation of gold and silver ETF's owned by whom?

Global Real Estate crisis unfolding which will also result in foreclosure with ownership reverting to whom?

Formation of base metals ETF's owned by whom?

Face it. You won't destroy the banks. They're way ahead of all of us on this and in the end, no they don't give a shit what way this breaks. If it's fiat for another 100 years that's fine with them. If it's to be a real asset based currency, bring it on. They control it all.

Another said often that we should walk in the footsteps of the giants. Well, it's obvious what they've been doing and why. What have we been doing?

I'm not the one ignoring history here. The merchant/banking class will always survive and thrive. This is how I know they hold the silver and gold - because it's just good business. Just as when they were the East India Company and used sailing ships they know how to read the winds. They'll continue to be around no matter what comes whether it's silver and gold or fiat. Let's just not kid ourselves and think that we're anywhere near as cunning and savvy as them.

SilverIsKing said...

@ Trinity B

Where do you see this run in silver topping out before it sells off again?

Thanks.

Louis Cypher said...

Been a busy couple of days. Life happens and all that so I haven't had a chance to read all the comments but figured I'd start with Trinity.
In short post whatever you want and say what ever you want as long as you don't get personal. Same rules apply to everyone. It's pretty much the only way to keep the conversation rational.

A couple of points
1 If any of us here cared about traffic we would be spamming zh etc.

2 Yes I was pleasantly surprised yesterday to see the price more than a buck 20 by end of day. When I posted it was hovering around 1.20 in the plus margin.

3 If you have insight or knowledge of the markets etc outside well we are all ears.

4 all that being said we only have one reason to be here and that is to investigate and validate or invalidate everything and anything. You won't get a hostile reception but you will get a rational discussion if thats what you want.

GM Jenkins said...

FWIW, I just sold my shares of AGQ and bought ZSL (double short), as if you look at the hour chart of silver, it is 5% above it's 20 hr exponential moving average, and it's easy to see that on the relatively rare occasions that happens historically, it usually falls back to its EMA before going back up. I of course have a tight stop since i'm not a trader, but I play one on the internet.

Trinity B said...

http://www.wired.com/autopia/2010/10/how-the-allies-used-math-against-german-tanks/

T x

Louis Cypher said...

Ooooh,
clever girl! Let's see if our database gurus can figure this out.

GM Jenkins said...

Hmmm ... the estimator could be applied to silver bars if we knew what the serial number of the first bar was. Then the total number of silver bars could be estimated by plugging into the equation in the article, m + (m/k) - 1, where m is the highest serial number we find minus the first serial number, assuming they are stamped sequentially, and k is the total number of bars we know of. Then there's an equation for variance, if anyone gets that far. More on order statistics here.

Louis Cypher said...

We might have to make some guesses based on the ETF inception date but this should yield some useful info.

Jason said...

Trinity-

Your either a good technical trader or do have some type of relative knowledge as to what the big traders wish to accomplish during the "froth" that occurs outside the primary trend.

My question would be as the large commercial short continually gets reduced, which is supporting the price movement upwards even though longs are at a point as to when silver was $20 an ounce, when, if ever, does a portion of this large short come back since the CFTC has decided to delay position limits until 2013 wouldn't it be quiet easy to keep silver below $50 an ounce? Also, most in the business understand the manipulation of the miners as in 2008 UXG was a perfect example of a stock being "taught" a lesson for ole Robby speaking out to the public. At one point are the KGC's and NEM's of the world "allowed" to trade at p/e's that reflect growth potentials and the hui stocks are released from their giant bond?

Warren James said...

@ Jason, good question. To jump in, and not trying to be cheeky, but I think Trinity's previous voice on the topic still apply:

"Look. Your silver will go up and down and up and down and up and down and up and down. Trade well and you'll make money. Be happy." (12th April 2011).

To be honest, I think Yukon nailed it with his comment above to BenRoberts13 - the price (to them) is largely irrelevant. Most of us are all still trapped on the margin where dollars do matter somewhat. If silver surges dramatically it will probably be accompanied by a commensurate fall. The tighter the physical market gets, the greater their degree of control. The stuff we see at CFTC is just a resultant artefact of the price machinations rather than the other way around. And it occurs this way because the derivatives mountain is so vast that it has a life of its own. Just my 2 cents.

@Trinity, thanks for the lead! Our next database post will look at the sequences of inventory so we can start getting a glimpse of the dark pools in the physical market. You rock :)

Swampfox said...

Gm said:

"Then the total number of silver bars could be estimated by plugging into the equation in the article, m + (m/k) - 1, where m is the highest serial number we find minus the first serial number, assuming they are stamped sequentially"

They likely are stamped sequentially but it is probably irrelevant with regards to SLV's inventory.

This formula worked to estimate Nazi tank numbers because the only ones who consumed the tanks were the nazi's themselves.

silver bars may be sequential but assuming that SLV is the sole owwner of a particular run in its entirety is an awfully big assumption and would thus render the formula for discerning level of tank production moot in this case.

Just my two cents.

Swampfox

Warren James said...

@ Swampfox, yes - agreed. And the picture becomes more complex when you consider each refiner has a difference numbering sequence. However, that is where having a database comes in handy because it can handle the complexity, the hard work becomes a matter of careful note taking.

Because SLV represents such a large sample size, we get good definition - we also have historical data to draw on. We can also add the ETF Securities data - in fact already we can see the same sequences for the Russian bars. Then we can borrow equations to guess any 'missing' data. It will be 'fuzzy' because we don't know where bars get consumed for industry.

This will be hard work but the ultimate goal would be to get a picture of how much metal is in those vaults. Trinity appears to have most of the answers (including the explanation about Wynter Benton) but is making us work for that information - effectively laying a trail of breadcrumbs.

We'll play this game, we like riddles and there is no shortage. But personally the reason I'm doing this is that I entered the silver market with the assumption 'they-don't-have-the-silver' and I am now finding this assumption to be faulty. Trying (unsuccessfully) to chase away a 'buy silver because fiat is crumbling' troll was one of the more surreal experiences I've had this week.

And of course, we're making our deconstruction public in case others may find the analysis useful. :)

AGoldhamster said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
AGoldhamster said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Louis Cypher said...

Hammy why restrict readership to your blog?
Why post here and then delete?

AGoldhamster said...

Wrote you an email two days earlier. There you had explanation why I deleted the comments.

Today - I had something to say again. But later decided "again to not stir the pot". And instead to let things flow - without my interference. And you know my posts tend to stir the pot. Because I tend to be rather straight. I'm sorry if that is of concern for you - hence my earlier mail to you to delete my comments.
If this is a problem - I will stop coming here at all - or make your blog restricted too. Your choice.

Access to my blog is restricted because I have members there which want my blog restricted. They come there exactly because it is limited.
In other words - some prefer small and ever peaceful backroom atmosphere rather than at times noisy saloons.
Another reason - also Gann had good reasons not to talk about everything in the public.

If there's a problem - again just delete all of my comments. That's what I would have done, if I would have been able to.

Xaritas said...

Adding to what Swampfox said, it was my impression that calculating the variance wouldn't tell you much about SLV or its stockpile, but it might give you insight into the production flows from various mints. This would support or deny various theories about the silver supply. I'm not sure what other questions can be answered from this sort of analysis, then again, I'm not a statistician either.

Trinity B said...

Louis:

I am told that Hammy's posts were a lengthy, rambling tirade about me lying about helping retail, being a douchebag, and how he lost money because I didn't tell him to get off the train.

The free time I have to make posts is very limited, and I had planned to write about WB today. But I feel I should address a few things first, and leave that for another time. This is not for Hammy's sake, who I fear is rather unstable, but for anyone else who is feeling the same as him.

Trinity B said...

1. I am not giving Day Trading 1.0 here. This would be a waste of my time, and there are many resources on the net to help you out.

2. If you need someone to tell you that there will be scary dips on OpEx, then you probably shouldn't be day trading.

3. If you need someone to tell you that there will be dips when the RSI is sky-high, then you probably shouldn't be day trading.

4. If you don't know how to use puts and calls or ETFs such as ZSL or AGQ to hedge against the overall trend, then you probably shouldn't be day trading.

Louis Cypher said...

Hammy,
I didn't receive any email from you. You are more than welcome to post here. Sometimes the way you express yourself (like just now) is combative. I am never sure if that is how you mean to come across. Then again by the time I get around to reading the comments section of a blog you have deleted your comments :)

Trinity B said...

5. The dip following my buy call was at $34.80. Silver is still above $37. If you lost money on that call, then you must be a very, very 'special' kind of person.

6. I made it clear on Watchtower that I will not be posting any more price information until one offending word is changed on the blog. This remains my position.

7. I will, however, still tell retail 'when to get off the train', WHEN THAT DAY COMES. That day will be when there's a risk of support levels being smashed like that infamous Sunday. That day was clearly not today.

8.I feel rather obligated to do so, as I had made this promise before my request to Watchtower. But if you're going to cack your pants every time silver (silver for feck's sake!) gets volatile, then I suggest you get out of the game right now.

Trinity B said...

OK, that's my silver blog time used up. Have a lovely weekend all, and I hope to post something, somewhere, next week.

Big kiss,

Trinster x

Tesla said...

@Trinity Blue

You kick arse!

=]

Louis Cypher said...

Trinity,
I don't think anyone here was particularly worried.
GM Jenkins pointed out he was going short.
I think most people paying attention would realize it's a healthy little blow off and expected. Big whoopdie doo in other words.

AGoldhamster said...

Trinity B - let's keep to facts:

I haven't lost money - and I haven't posted that. Instead I didn't close the trades where I would have closed them according to TA.
In hindsight - clearly my error.

This was the exact wording:
"I would have sold in the high 38.8x or so.
Definitely.
I held due to his previous calls."

I have still made a 5 digit number of € profits in this round. Is that enough to be called a loss?

Furthermore - if a 7% correction out of the blue is not noteworthy - and just a normal daily swing - then I don't know.
On the other hand again something not you have to deal with - but the accountwoner. Be it a sheep or a professional. That's trading.

The point to be made was this - also a snip of my comment:

#1 capital protection
#2 TA
#3 Trading is a business and not a Las Vegas Trinity show.

That is still my view.

And finally not to stir the pot, or Trinity or his followers - I removed the posts. What is wrong about that?

AGoldhamster said...

And finally - I want to apologize. It's neither my job nor my goal to hurt or violate somebody. Whoever it is. No exceptions.

My only 2 goals in this traders world are to make money - and (based on outstanding results - and not just insanity) to help prevent the sheep and lemmings to be burned.

Sometimes that works. Sometimes not.
Just learning.

Sorry for stiring the pot.
That was it.
Hammy vanishing for the exits.

Swampfox said...

Trinity - have a good weekend. If you do get a chance to read this please think about one thing carefully. And I say this because I like you - you provide free information which to date is pretty reliable (Me thinks you are an insider with some signifigant positioning to make the calls you doo - I quote "I am not Blythe but I may as well be". So please take this in the spirit it is intended - intelligent discourse. Regarding your views on the USD. In a world of possibilities nothing is impossible. In fact - in keeping with Yukon's train of thought it is far more likely the banking elite will be around indefinitely than an political empire or it's monetary system. The one constant in the universe is change. Without a crystal ball I'm not sure how any of us could say with certainty exactly what the future holds - even people in places of political and financial power - historically speaking - have had their heads handed to them on a plate.

Hedge against the unexpected.

Respectfully,
Swampfox.

Huxley Ann said...

@ Trinity Blue

I totally understand why you won't post on Turd's site until things change. I'll read you here.


Huxley Ann

gniuz said...

@Trinity B

I'm still mesmerized by your first post on Watchtower.. The way it was written. I still believe this could have been the real ms. Masters. It was powerful, but with a feminine touch!

On the other hand, not all posts that followed gave me that same feeling. So maybe this alter ego is used by a small group of insiders.. For sure you know more than many of us do.

I highly appreciate your posts but will always question the message that you are giving us. It is kind to provide us with inside info which we can use to our own benefit. Yet it wouldn't surprise me that, in the end, you want us do you a big favor in return.

Please do keep us updated @ Watchtower. As Turd stated himself, his blog has become bigger than himself! I'm sure many of us are very interested in the messages you provide!

Thanks for being interesting!

/SleepingVillage/ said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
/SleepingVillage/ said...

Trin,

You have my respect:) I enjoy how you write, and appreciate what you seem to be doing. I'm not a trader and don't really give a shit about silver, aside from its scientific utility, but I like your style and the fact that it may help others that trade.

I admire a confident, intelligent and well-meaning woman:) Person?

vickaty said...

I guess we can now call this the all about Trinity blog. What started out as an interesting topic regarding the SLV ETF has gotten totally off track ass kissing it boggles my mind. As far as Trinity WGARA.

Warren James said...

For anyone reading - I apologize for my hostility to 'Ultarnerd' with such high suspicion in my earlier comments. I no longer believe he is a disinformation agent - I had pegged his infrequent account usage as an indicator of a 'sleeper' account. My attitude displayed reflects only my elevated paranoia and general crankiness. That said, if Dale T aka Ultarnerd wishes to reach his audience, he needs to at least address the central argument before flooding his own ideas. I am reminded of this post by Bron Suchecki which is a useful reference. Also bear in mind we debunked some Yahoo Finance Board premium claimers back in March (not the WB group, but certainly folk wishing to perpetuate the stories).

For my own personal context I am trying to come to grips with the 'they-have-the-silver' issue. Not so much the acceptance or new theory but the destruction of the old theory in my head, which is really tough (and upsetting) to dismantle. The words which Robert LeRoy Parker penned above actually echo my own sentiment since as an investment community we've been fed misinformation and it is now difficult to know who to trust in regards to source information. Stepping back up to the plate for another bat is tough, but it's what must be done - we'll keep slogging away at it until we win this game.

Even the SLV serial number data - could still potentially be a master forgery. A professional, dedicated team could still produce and maintain a database complete with enough imperfections to make it look real, and the budget even for a large team to do this would be peanuts compared with the cost of obtaining the metal ... but Occam's Razor suggests this is unlikely. Until I manage to identify some serial data anomalies, then I have to conclude that the claims in the serial bar list are real - very real. Not able to let this go, I envisage my research may take me on some travels - be a proper journalist - via Perth Mint, then across to Zhuzhou Smelter (China) before going back to the United States. In theory I can have this all wrapped up before gold gets revalued as a global reserve asset.

Finally, a bit on the nature of the blog here - Louis has set this up pretty much like a soapbox in central park - anyone who has anything to discuss or announce is free to post.

@ Trinity, I note that Turd Ferguson is resolute regarding his use of the d-word. If you really want to stir him up, you're welcome to write articles here as your platform. You'll still get your desired effect - I note that your name is still getting mentioned on average 8 times in the daily comments at the WatchTower. Your claims of course, will be tested by ourselves as well as by anyone else.

@ Robert LeRoy Parker - the same invitation also extends to you as well. Having followed your same road, I think you have read and seen enough that you have your own story to tell, and if you want to get on the soap box then please do. Your rant was pretty well put together.

In order to send a blogger invitation, we would need an email address. Currently we don't have a team email address, the only public one we have is "bullionbars (at) hotmail.com". Cheers all and again thank you for the great discussion - we are several steps closer to a clearer picture .. another database post in June.

/SleepingVillage/ said...

Warren,

I should've also said good job to you for your excellent analysis on the SLV stuff. Keep up the good work:)

Yoni said...

Been Studying up the May Day Silver Massacre and last Thursday's AM attack (5/26).

What is truly scary is the small amount of volume over one hour period that it took to cause a $6 or close to 10% drop.

Something to consider going into this end of the month holiday weekend.


Have a lookies Here !

Louis Cypher said...

Vickaty,
There are NO sacred cows here whether it's the SLV has no Silver or GATA is correct. If you put something out there and it wears a funny hat then it (the funny hat) will be laughed at.

If Trinity says something I disagree with I will say so. If Trinity says something smart I will say so. She has only said one thing I disagree with so far and I have said it as I know it to be wrong. It may turn out though I am wrong. We shall see.

She said something really smart the other day. So far she has proven herself to be pretty damn smart so lets see where this goes.

As for the ass kissing I see it on every blog every day. Some people want their ass kissed and others want to kiss their ass. I don't get it. I have never gotten it. I don't get S&M either but each to their own.

Huxley Ann said...

Guys/gals,

What I like most about Trinity Blue is that she/he seems usually right, is quite articuate, and DOESN"T believe in some kind of "mad max" scenerio for the world. We have survivied every boom/bust cycle and all this food storage stuff is just too Mormon to be true.


Huxley Ann

GM Jenkins said...

Yoni: Ted Butler had a great essay on the May Day Massacre. One thing nobody seems to bring up though is the strange bin laden angle to it. That assassination was revealed only a few hours after the 6 pm Sunday silver "assassination" (as Butler calls it). Given the persuasive argument that the US dollar is backed mostly by our military might, the concatenation of these events is too perfect to be due to chance, if you ask me. I've brought up a few times here how silver appeared to be "allowed" to rise up to $50 in the last three weeks of April with few of the sharp raids we were used to seeing. I noticed it as it was happened, as well as the related point of how the mining stocks were all being strangely sold off during that time. If the coordinated attack (including the margin hikes) were planned in advance, along with the Sunday Massacre (an event triggered by no news story or supply demand issue), then the entities that arranged the Massacre are the luckiest people in the world if the bin laden assassination news followed 2 hrs later just by coincidence. On the other hand, if it wasn't a coincidence, then the price of silver must be really important to TPTB.

Tesla said...

Regarding Mr Butlers Write Up:

Where is the silver from the SLV - I see a chart widely circulated showing a 37 million ounce increase in COMEX Registered silver. But cannot confirm this through any other source. Can anyone point me in the right direction.


Thanks in advance

GM Jenkins said...

Warren: I also noted Turd Ferguson has dropped the gloves regarding Trinity B. I've noted some testosterone injected into his posts of late (do you think he might now regret calling himself Turd?) I'm really looking forward to Trinity's promised comment on WB. Larisa Sprott vs. Blythe Masters - now that's a catfight! With Trinity Blue rounding out the unholy trinity, as it were.

GM Jenkins said...

Huxley Ann, glad you could join us. Though I agree it's unlikely, I for one would encourage you not to rule out offhand a mad max scenario. I believe this is the first time in world history that there is no real asset backed currency to which to turn. I fear that if the dollar were ever to collapse, as guys like John Williams at Shadowstats prophesy, then domestic fury and fierce civil strife shall cumber all the parts of world. Hell even Kid Dynamite had a recent post asking for help raising chickens.

Tesla: I believe Jesse at Cafe Americain has said that the 37 million added to COMEX was a glitch.

GM Jenkins said...

This thread has become unwieldy. If KD or victorthecleaner are still following it, I'd like to see how they would reconcile KD's statement: "it's not a big deal that COMEX's silver hoard has declined, since SLV's silver hoard has increased by 5-7x the amount of COMEX's decline! The inventory has shifted from COMEX to SLV"s vaults..." with victorthecleaner's statement "I don't think it is a big surprise that COMEX inventory ('registered' category) is declining. This is just because silver has been in backwardation for most of the year."

Not that they're necessarily mutually exclusive... In my link to Tesla above, Jesse at Cafe Americain (who I trust more than Harvey Organ) believes that the COMEX will make it through May, but "barely."

Tesla said...

GM Jenkins: Thank you. Although I'm still puzzled as to where the silver went. When the SLV flushed many stops hit and margins calls where triggered, a huge amount of silver 'left' the SLV and went somewhere - right?

What am I missing (the theory that the silver vault is empty/full regardless)
the silver - paper or real - must have ended up on someones books somewhere, I think this is important - no?

Tesla said...

To clarify - your last post above states where it is believed to be. But where is this information disclosed definitively. Or is this simply the only place it 'can' be?

Louis Cypher said...

Tesla, For the sake of argument lets say SLV has the silver. My suspicion is they simply take it off the books. Then when they need to buy silver they simply add it back into inventory. It never moves physically.
Larry Edelson (great charts but ...) reckons it gets carried off by gnomes in the night to Switzerland to be then unloaded to the unsuspecting public who thinks there is a silver shortage.
OK, the Gnomes part is me paraphrasing.
By tracking inventory via the database we may be able to determine if it physically moves or not.
This is also one of the reasons I would like to know the physical addresses for all these warehouses as well. Is it physically possible for them to move the inventory around as fast as they are reporting?

Louis Cypher said...

I should add these suspicions are based on Warren's great analysis and article. Also, as Warren pointed out this may also mean they have a crap load more Silver than they are reporting. Or it's really a huge scam and the bar list they publish is fantasy.

Tesla said...

Hmmm... This leaves me with more questions than answers.
Thanks for the discourse regarding these concerns - I will research more and return with findings, if any, once solidified.

Have a terrific holiday weekend - and thanks for what you are doing here!

Kid Dynamite said...

Louis - this is one of the reasons they (SLV) have 5 warehouses in the center of the silver trading universe: london - so that they don't have to truck millions of ounces of silver all over the world every night. Someday they might open a warehouse that coincides with the COMEX warehouses - I don't know why they wouldn't - and you KNOW that the 'bugs would raise holy hell if that happened, although it's perfectly logical to expect...

During SLV creations/redemptions, silver moves from XYZ's pile in Vault #1 (let's say XYZ - JP Morgan) to SLV's pile in Vault #1 when there are SLV creations. Alternatively, maybe UBS has their silver in Vault #2 - so when UBS does a creation, the silver moves from UBS's Vault2 pile to SLV's vault 2 pile.

If the silver isn't segregated into separate physical piles within the vault, but, rather, is simply allocated, then it's just a title change. (I called SLV about this a few months ago, but gave up before they could get me someone who could actually answer the question of if the silver is actually physically moved from one pile to another.)

This is another way in which Sprott has manged to fool people with the "delay" in getting silver. If he wanted to store his silver in London, at the vaults where everyone already has silver, then he could have gotten it overnight. If he wanted it to take even longer, he could have put his vault in Antarctica.

Gm Jenkins - as you noted, my statement about rising SLV inventories is not mutually exclusive with Victor's statement about backwardation. The gist of what I was getting as is that "visible silver inventories" used to be "COMEX inventories." Now, with the creation of SLV, it's "COMEX + SLV inventories," which is larger than the PREVIOUS visible silver inventories.

and regarding the erroneous reporting of a 37mm ounce increase in COMEX silver inventories - this will happen eventually - although it didn't happen yet. If COMEX longs try to stand for delivery and corner the market, you should expect to see silver come out of SLV and into COMEX. It could, of course, come from somewhere else instead - no guarantee it will come from SLV - but if there's actually a shortage of silver elsewhere, SLV has ready supply. (none of which is to say that such an event wouldn't coincide with higher silver prices!)

finally, COMEX will "survive" May deliveries - not "barely," but easily. there should be no debate to the contrary. Anyone who is still holding out hope that COMEX shorts will be unable to come up with the last bit of silver they are obligated to deliver is living a lie.

victorthecleaner said...

I agree. There is no contradiciton.

At the COMEX, there has been a lot of movement of silver from the `registered' category (dealer inventory on which warehouse receipts circulate) to the `eligible' category (owned by someone else, just left inside the COMEX vault system for convenience).

This makes sense. With backwardation, the dealers would have to pay interest on their inventory. They try to avoid this, and so are running down their inventory in the `registered' category.

Whether COMEX long contracts will be delievered on, does not depend on the amount of `registered' inventory. With backwardation, I bet that delievery will take place as late in the delivery period as possible (the common silver bug will misinterpret this as a `shortage' again), and it may even come straight out of investment pools and may be switched to `registered' status at the last minute (the common silver bug will again misinterpret this).

Even if JPM or whoever were really net short silver, they would avoid defaulting on their COMEX obligations by any means. They would rather bid up SLV to a 50% premium over spot, take out the silver, and deliver it to the longs. If COMEX shorts ever blow up, this will happen only one millisecond before the big reset, and it will be too late for the silver bugs to rejoice.

When COMEX silver blows up, all the trust that is left would evaporate, and gold would be withdrawn from the market, too. That would be `game over'.

By the way, LBMA silver backwardation looks about to disappear. The last time this happened was around March 18 just before silver took off big time. I have an idea of why this might happen, but I cannot prove it yet.

Victor

Bingo Pajama said...

A test of my new blogger name and avatar. Thanks for endulging me.

ultarnerd said...

Since we are talking about shortages here some stuff I just recently found.Note that I live in Canada and I suspect there is a chance of less silver or gold propaganda here??
Just found this supplier in Canada advertising on
http://www.bullionbullscanada.com/ and this one is not terribly far
from where I live and look and behold,they report silver shortages
in the here and now.
http://www.broadsidebullion.ca/

I have often said when the real crisis hits, it will
be when the small mints have trouble delivering and that will be when
it hits home rather than in the Comex or other far away place like
Afghanistan or Hodiniville.The average Joe can see his local shop empty and
start to worry some, but the far away places are just not not close
enough to panic him or the other sheeple.
Its a good guess that the big PTB also know this too, so note that I
predicted the small mints outside the US will display the shortages
first.I really believe the US will make extra sure those small US mints
will show no shortages until near the very end, as you cant have the US
people,especially not in the US, noticing anything.

Louis Cypher said...

Bullionbullscanada is a pretty small site with very little traffic. Traffic is measured in thousands a year. Any of the bigger suppliers showing any shortages in Canada?

Louis Cypher said...

I agree we will see the little guys lose inventory quicker but we would need to track their inventory over longer periods. If we did we would have a pretty good sentiment indicator.

Yukon Cornelius said...

There is absolutely no shortage of of silver anywhere. Any shop telling you that there is a shortage is speaking for themselves (as in they don't have enough cash on hand to stock their inventory) or they're making it up. I mean, you have gone out and looked yourself right? It's everywhere.

There is literally so much inventory that retailers are dropping their premium to as low as 0.99/oz over spot. (Hint: That's what you do when you're desperately greasing the wheels to try and move inventory and get things moving again. We'd all see this if it was a cheeseburger at McDonalds, but because it's silver a lot of us still aren't seeing clearly. These places aren't short of silver, they're fricking drowning in it!!!)

http://www.apmex.com/Category/860/Industrial_Silver.aspx

Remember, the premium tells us what the real value of silver is right? There can't be one standard for an ETF and another for the real in your hands damn metal. Yeah, that's some targeted sarcasm. The more I think about this the more I'm convinced that there is some great misdirection going on here, but it's not from the people you've been told to not listen to, it's from the ones you've been listening to. The real question I keep asking myself is why...

Warren James said...

I agree with what Yukon has to say here - when Perth Mint tells you there's no shortage of physical silver, but there is a shortage of minted products then that's enough for me.

Hey Ultarnerd, if you are going to persist with pushing the 'there-is-a-silver-shortage' meme, and not address any of my allegations, then this still puts you in the 'organised-misinformation-management' bucket.

Watch this space, more shortly.

ultarnerd said...

I know I can buy silver any time thats true but ever since I bought my silver at 12.00 an ounce US I only payed 1.00 premium.Cant find it now for that and the same mint I bought them from its now near 2.00 an ounce premium.So I do not know what to say here Its just what I see.In fact the same Pan am ingots from the same NWT mint were almost 10.00 premium on 1 ounce ingots but I should not make much of it as you can get them much cheaper elsewhere so I have no real idea whats that about.
And I did not say that the small mints will run out sooner I meant they will run out last.Its the Comex and SLV and GLD that may or may not actually own their silver that will be the last to run out.This is because those small mints are very close to the people themselves and in physical there are not so many shenanigans possible.You need the real thing to sell the real thing.But its just my prediction but I do believe its happening now.Big guys wont run out because they do not need to actually have physical to sell silver and or can do reserve banking etc all.
True these is no real shortage yet and as long as I can call a local mint and they have some then I wont panic either when I sell someone a bit of my silver for a small profit as long as more is available in some form, but I fear the day when I sell a little and call the mints and its no longer almost at the paper price.But I do believe them when they say some silver is not so easily available, that the premiums are more and they are overwhelmed by orders as reports on this are getting too common now.
By the way I pridict AMPEX will be the very very last to show shortages as it way to popular.

Yes I do but scrap gold and silver here and I actually but on a guess about 300.00 worth of gold for every 10.00 of silver.There just is no silver around as scrap if its dollar by dollars worth since silver is just so cheap.After I got a bit of money I literally bought about 1/2 of all the scarp silver on ebay for about 2 days, I would be lucky to last a few hours trying to buy all the scarp gold.Yet go into a small mint and they got loads of silver.One mint was claming it was selling about 200 ounces of silver for every ounce of gold and I can testify form my cataloging all sources of scrap silver that gets thrown away and not recovered is amassing.I get about 1/10 ounce of silver from the average older washing machine of the most common to be thrown away.So yes I would not be surprised if most all the silver mined has been thrown away and is no longer available. Here the biggie,all the mining in the world only produces a bit over 10 ounces of silver for ever ounce of gold, get it something really does not look right here and they say no shortages just does not seam plausible unless in fact everyone is just buying paper after all.
So yea there is no shortage of paper silver as long as very few but physical.In fact if everyone only ever bought paper silver there could never ever be any shortage.
Everyone here need to look more closely and ask are you seeing just what the power's that be i.e. TPTB want you to see??.

ultarnerd said...

Heavens help me I need to proof read more.
I spell bad I spell really bad, I need a bath.

I repeatedly typed "but" when I meant "buy"

One of my favorite forums allows me to edit and I am used to doing it a lot.Its a forum created because the original forum at Marketwatch were repeatedly deleting their posts and yes they were mostly pro gold and silver from actual knowledgeable traders and I do mean actually knowledgeable.What strikes me odd is I never have my posts deleted until I posted speculating one of them might have been hired by the government or etc all to censor.Got at least 2 of my posts deleted that day.Be suspicious be very suspicious.

Warren James said...

Ultarnerd, your NLP is perfect. You won't ever address the allegation that you're a disinformation agent because it's not in your playbook to address it, right? In fact you can't resist spamming this thread a few more times because I've called you on it (again).

ultarnerd said...

Lost my whole post and this might be a shortened version.
Where have where have you ever seen a misinformation agent talking down the US dollar and talking up gold and silver if its not a small mint owner.Not even terrorist would do that as it protects the public.
That's really weird and I really do not think I have ever seen one of those but I think I have seen the other kind.
But I can find tons of reasons for misinformation agents to talk up the dollar and down gold and silver depending on who is paying them.I could go on about the Rothschild's the FED that they own and banking and the why for the politicians but wow that's a lot of typing.Someone here read The creature from Jeckel island ?? and ? on spelling etc all.

The thing about American Patriot, commonly on the Marketwatch forum, was he shown some knowledge yet never ever said anything good about gold or silver and was all pro dollars so much so that he was very suspect in his motives.No one could know that much but still have no clue about the good points on Ag Au etc at all.
I still read Jon Nadler on Kitco but I think its mostly because I want to catch the day he actually apologies for having been wrong year after year.

ultarnerd said...

But some more thoughts, how in the world could I prove I am not a misinformation agent.
But I often say that I do not really need prof that the powers that be will rip of everyone in the paper silver racket and why do I say this, well its just because that's exactly what I would do if I were a ruthless to big to fails scam bank.That's all the reasons I need and should be enough for you too.Reason, good reasoning is good no mater who says it.

A saying of mine is that a stooped thing done by the smartest person in the world is still a stupid thing.Same might be said of the reverse.

Warren James said...

That's neither a denial nor an affirmation of the allegation ... keep trying. I have no real argument with you Ultarnerd, and you'll be happy to know I'll leave your material up. But your inability to address a central argument, is consistent with someone trying to convince someone of something through repetition and linguistic manipulation. I'm aware that some folk don't have that ability, but I've read some of your posts elsewhere and I'm well aware you have the ability. I'm curious that you do not exercise it here.

ultarnerd said...

I have no idea on how to argue I am not a misinformation agent I have never had that question and it never even occurred to me anyone would even think to ask,This is a really new one to me.If you knew me personally you would really laugh.I'm a science nerd living in a basement and has his own junk yard and lab and never had a real girl friend so I really am the ultimate nerd and if anyone actually thought I was good enough to hire as a misinformation agent I could sure use the money to get my car going again but I might just buy more silver.
I am very odd to the extreme.Literally figured out stuff in science years ahead of anyone else and if you look at my main theory on time and space creation you would soon see why I often say.
The value of truth is determent more by the scale,quality and duration of its marketing department, rather than the actual measure of its truth.Look at churches.

Huge heaping piles of BS that people are willing to pay for has more value than the purest pristine truth that no one wants.

I have read with and agree, people respect title they do not respect knowledge.

Why else would such a basic truth, as with this alternate theory that explains so much so clearly have been so ignored.Truth should promote itself by its own merit.Such is obviously not the case.

So why should all this stuff on fiat money, banks, politicians and gold and silver etc all be any different.The American public as well as other people as well has been dumbed down to the extreme.

So now we now have politicians who job it is not to improve society as is commonly believed but to get votes and keep getting votes and are voted into power for their ability to get votes despite how they get them.
I have often felt that the use of patriotism is to keep the dumb people voting so the politicians can plan their campaigns around the dumb. People getting to smarter and more informed would make the whole thing harder to plan.Very little of this sort of thing surprises me any more.

ultarnerd said...

Don't even get me started on environmentalism scams for profit galore with just a few occasional sprinkling of truths. The whole thing has been a Woodstock for scams.With just enough truth to keep it plausible.I could write a book on the truth about recycling and the logical alternatives.
If you think I am a misinformation agent for just the one subject you have no idea.

Warren James said...

Ultarnerd, thanks again for rising to the challenge. The expected reaction to an allegation would be to deny it, not to side-step it so I can confirm that you operate at a level of thought somewhat different. I also confirm that you're quite intelligent. I'll also stand by my call of neuro-linguistic-programming .. which is possible you're doing (as a defence mechanic) without realising it. It is certainly present.

What I'd like to know is:

1. Have you considered that by dogmatically propogating unsubstantiated claims (i.e. without questioning and lacking evidence), that you are perhaps unwittingly filling the role of misinformation agent? You ought to have some serious questions about the silver stuff you've read (on the internet) I know we do. To quote Louis Cypher, quoting John Manyard Keynes: "When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir? (link)".

2. How did you come to use this particular google account for more these many words - when you only used it prior once back in Dec 2010? (I know you post in the marketwatching forums, since I've been reading a lot of your stuff, I'm talking about your posting frequence on Blogspot/Blogger).

For what it's worth, you and I are equal (in our paranoia), since in one of your marketwatching posts you have suggested that Costata (@FOFOA) is possibly a government shill ;0 by virtue of his recent silver articles. You're okay in my book, thanks for persisting.

Regards,
Warren

ultarnerd said...

Wow, Warren you do not sound like the average Joe at all, I'm impressed.You must speed read too as I have no idea how or if you could have read that many of my posts and finding where they were posted too.
You can look back in sci.physics on Usenet if you were that interested in my science related postings but its been a while since I have been posting there.I was not getting much feedback on how the theory might be wrong and where else to go with it etc so I got discouraged.I got to feeling like I was talking to myself.

And yes I do question myself, am I being objective??. Did that a lot.Developing that theory I think I may have spent as much or more time just trying to figure out where I was wrong.Trying to disprove you own theory is essential to knowing if what you have is any good and saving yourself a lot of humiliation later on.

So I took an extra interests in gold and silver lately as a mater of survival and the need to help others too.Much as I love science this is a period of true emergency and history in the making.I had no idea how deep this subject actually goes until I got into it more.
For example what has been suggested on other websites is that the very universities themselves may be influenced in a way by those very same powers that by to actually keep promoting Keynesian economics and to avoid teaching anything about such information as the control of the banking industry by the Rothschild's etc all.
The very education system itself may have become corrupted. So would that mean that being educated by Harvard in economics is actually being educated in The school of economic propaganda.I do not know but such questions should be asked.If this is true are those people even actually educated ?.

One example is not long ago and I think I saved the site where one person was pointing out how much more he learn't outside of his university where it actually looked like some types of information was being kept from him.Forget what it was now.What I also read is something about how the Rothchld family has invested in many universities above the 51% and since they own the fed its gets really easy to speculate on what that could easily mean.I will need to find out more on this as it sounds like it leads to some fascinating speculations.

Bron said...

"My suspicion is they simply take it off the books. Then when they need to buy silver they simply add it back into inventory. It never moves physically."

More than a suspicion, it is what happens. Physically moving it around is the most (less) likely explanation. Silver is bulky.

"Is it physically possible for them to move the inventory around as fast as they are reporting?"

Silver is not flown around, the cost per ounce would be a killer. When we ship in (which takes 2-3 months) from London it is done 20 tonne to a sea container (that is max capacity of container). I'd guess 20t probably is capacity of trucks as well, for land movements.

Louis Cypher said...

Hey Bron,
Thanks for the confirmation. By the way have you ever been in any of the Silver warehouses in London?

/SleepingVillage/ said...

"Costata (@FOFOA) is possibly a government shill ;0 by virtue of his recent silver articles"

Hahaha! The goddamn shills are everywhere! Run! Must mean I am, too, and everyone else that sees silver as an industrial commodity. Bastards! The paranoia is killin' me...

;)

Louis Cypher said...

I knew it!
BTW where can I get an application form?
What's the pay like? I'll assume the usual govt benefits apply. Thanks in advance.

/SleepingVillage/ said...

Hehe, the pay sucks, but it's oh-so satisfying. The benefits would surely be the silver lining. I hear they actually get paid in silver. I wouldn't know for sure, I'm new, having only been blogging for a few months, and infrequently.

Jeanne d'Arc said...

Hi guys. Long time lurker here, but I've been drawn into commenting on this mammoth thread, as I think it's fascinating.

The way I see it, we've got lots of strands all leading to the same question. Look at the 150 comments here: it kicked off with "Trinity B". What is Trinity B? A fraud, almost certainly, but one that speaks to a certain audience. It's the 'hope' thing, which all investors share. If only there was someone who knew the real story; if only there was someone who'd lay it all out for us, so we knew the truth; if only there was someone to tell us when to buy and when to sell. We know in our hearts that Trinity or Amber or WB or whatever are probably just trolls, but something inside us desperately wants to believe. We suppress the rational part of ourselves, and replace it with hope.

Then we have all the "Ultranerd" stuff, which we’ve heard many times before. The silver shortage, the manipulation, the secret plots of evil JPM led by a cartoon Blythe. We see it on almost every blog, and a kind of group think develops in which dissenting voices are quickly quashed. Fight the Evil Empire! F*ck the Morgue! When so many voices say the same thing, who wants to be on the wrong side of the consensus?

Jeanne d'Arc said...

[posting in two halves, as Blogspot keeps eating it]

Then the article itself. Ten people a day scream at us that there's a silver shortage, that SLV is a ponzi, that Weimar conditions will soon be on us. We rarely stop to question it. The Evil Empire isn't shouting anything one way or another, so it becomes the menacing, brooding, silent enemy. And we have *our* champions all over the web, so we're ok.

But, with so much information being pushed out at such high volume, when do we actually stop and think, hey, what's Trinity's agenda here? What's Ultranerd's? What about JPM? And the pro-silver blogs?

I have no answers to the above. But I think we all owe it to ourselves to start looking for some. Keep up the good work, guys.

Bron said...

"By the way have you ever been in any of the Silver warehouses in London?"

No, and I don't think they let many in. Same over here. When you start storing big dollar amounts, security paranoia is high. I'm from the Perth Mint, so what they'd say, how do we know you haven't been compromised.

Re Jeanne d'Arc agenda alert, I think this comment from Trinity B on Turd is worth focusing on: “I really couldn't give a rat's arse, provided that the volatility is there so that we make money.” More volatility, more trading profit.

http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/05/really-good-day.html?showComment=1306285285238#c7717754574154861201

ultarnerd said...

No seriously people still think I have an agenda.
Seriously I cant stand propaganda especially where it can hurt people.
I really believe what I am saying and for a tiny bit of proof here is one of my adds I have going right now trying to get someone to do a rent to buy so I can be payed in gold or silver or at least so they give me the money to buy it myself so I end up with the same amount of metals either way.While its true cash is not toilet paper at least not now think about doing a rent to buy where I have no idea what the cash will be worth after a rent to by is nearly over years later.I could end up being payed a loaf of bread or a movie rental per month and the banks are not lending and etc etc.I probably wont mind even a small 5 ounces of silver per month as I wont need interests to match inflation or etc to worry about either.

And yes I sold one of my extra hoses and put the whole thing into physical gold and silver mostly silver after some bills I had to pay.Got another add if you want to find it that's similar.

http://saintjohn.kijiji.ca/c-real-estate-houses-for-sale-Apartment-in-St-George-for-sale-or-an-odd-sort-of-rent-to-buy-W0QQAdIdZ276726530


No seriously I really believe this silver thing will make me rich and save me from losing more money on this real estate stuff.Might buy a few mining stocks to for greater profits but the risks are more too.
Keep in mind I live in Canada and the currency and real estate risks may not, or at least at this time, be as bad as for the US.