Just a quick update to my previous post. I suspected the blue trend line on the long term weekly chart would be resistance, and gold did indeed stagger there, unable to close above it. So I remain bearish.
Also, our little friend, the 144-day MA, who as support helped us make easy money for over almost two years, is now looking like resistance...
That long term linear trend line (purple, top) that was breached a few months ago is acting eerily similar to how it did during the 2008 correction. The grey dotted line denotes a two-year span. The log chart looks markedly different of course (e.g. the percentage gains leading to the 2008 top were very similar to the percentage gains leading to the 2011 top)
but if the linear chart will be a better guide to the future than the log chart (assuming one of them has to be, because ... well anyway), check out below, where I (highly speculatively) lined up the 2008 bottom to the 2013 bottom thus far. A nice fit. Which suggests $30 might offer resistance for quite some time.