I say there's still a chance it will break $1400 next week, but the important number for me is $1425, especially a weekly close there. So many different charts point to that as the level that needs to be broken before anyone should get excited about gold's intermediate term prospects.
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| Weekly chart with 38% Fib fan and MAs that form a nice bull-bear buffer zone |
I've posted a bunch of them, with a few captions. I hope they're clear, since I do not have time right now to add further commentary.
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| 38% Fib fan from more recent peak was cleared, but 50% crosses with 38% from previous chart |
2 comments:
Beautiful post. It seems like everyone believes that QE goes to infinity and there will be no taper. I think because most people believe there can't be one, there will be a taper and the markets will overreact to it short term.
That will create an excellent entry point / buying opportunity in the US equity markets to go comfortably long for the next 18 to 24 month run up into fall 2015.
Gold should stay boring into 2014 and paint a double bottom or lower low before reversing.
It's likely we've seen the top in the multi-decade bond rally this year. The US equity market should attract fleeing foreign capital and these inflows should support the USD relative to Asian and South American emerging market currencies. From reading into Carney's most recent language, USD strength vs the GBP also seems very likely. Abe is not doing the YEN any favours either.
Canada's real estate market bubble is waiting for the pin that is the collapse of the shadow debt in the Chinese lend to develop arena to surface. I expect that to happen in the next year or two if not sooner.
Finally Canada's bond yields are marching upwards, possible signaling expectations of a cheaper CAD in addition to a re balancing vs T-Bills putting further pressure on long term mortgage rates and by proxy the real estate market. The OFSI is also considering tighter lending guidelines.
Thanks FtS, and good points.
FWIW, I sold the GLL, + ~3.5%. I don't like those leveraged funds, generally, especially holding on to the short PM ones, and especially when I'm too busy to follow markets closely.
Wait and see now.
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