--and sorry for the infrequent posting many of you have been wondering about. My plate's been pretty full of late.
Speaking of "full plates" -- we recently heard from our erstwhile contributor and lemur-emeritus, JdA (left) in the comments of my previous post.(Lemuritis was a tempting contraction, but sadly too evocative of another contraction, one that has led to the fever and painful urination I've been suffering on and off since Spring Break in 1997) ... and we're all thankful (as always) that she could take the time off her busy schedule to chime in:
The PM situation is looking very ropey to me: in fact, I'm pretty sure that gold is going to tank over the next few months, and silver will perform even worse. Perhaps even in time for the anniversary of the Great Mayday Massacre of 2011…”I have to agree, but I'm not short yet: the PMs have a way of following the long term charts, but flipping off the short term ones. As I pointed out last week, still waiting for a break below the 20-30 week ribbon on a weekly close (as well as the 144-day MA below that):
As well as confirmation of the first three-line break chart's reversal by the second (which I use to gauge intermediate cycles in gold, silver respectively)
So I'm faced with a dilemma... Given the lack of time I have for posting these days (as mentioned above), I figure it's better than nothing at least to post many of the charts I track, with minimal commentary. Perhaps some readers will find them helpful. At any rate, I'd be happy to answer any questions in the comments.
So it's the end of another month, and I've decided to post monthly three line break charts for many commodities. I find the cleanliness of these charts absolutely amazing. Note these all go back to the early 1980s!
(Remember, a new bar is added to these charts whenever a monthly close is higher/lower than the previous high/low of the current trend. If two bars trend in the same direction, then the high/low of the first (i.e. earliest) of the two bars has to be broken for a reversal to take place. If three or more bars all trend in the same direction, the first (i.e. earliest) of the previous three bars has to be broken for a reversal to register.)
Thus with the recent $19.17 close in the April silver price, we now only need to see a ~$20 monthly close for silver to register a bullish three line break reversal. I don't think that will happen, but it would a very positive development for the bullish case in silver if it did.
Which isn't to say silver won't break $20 intra-month (and I am mildly expecting a rally). Those who have read my previous post will recall that the important monthly three-line break chart for "10 year yields measured in oil" was in the process of undergoing a reversal, and I predicted based on my gut feeling that it's too early for such a reversal, that oil would proceed to fall in price. Which it did like clockwork. There is still now no three-line break reversal on the chart.
Note gold needs a >$1600 monthly close to register a three line break reversal. Yet another reason why I see a close below $1200 before a return to a bull market:
And here are many others, which are really worth tracking. . .
And now some old charts that are at precarious points.
Gold in swiss francs ... ugly:
Here's the long term chart of gold with my important proprietary support/resistance ribbon. Long way to go before last years catastrophic $1525 level is broken to the upside again, friends. Probably $1425 too, as I've mentioned for different reasons in the past several months.
Till next time!
BONUS CHART FROM GM'S VAULT
by request ... 3-line break monthly and weekly of NASDAQ.
Amazing, isn't it, that the 2000 bubble high is in play again?
One reason I like these charts is that three-line reversals often lead to tradeable predictions. Eg...For over 35 years on the monthly chart, and since the 2001 crash on the weekly chart, not a single 3-line break reversal to the upside has been a "singleton" event. It's always followed by at least one more up bar, and usually many more bars. So a reversal on the weekly chart, which is currently in a 3-bar bear cycle, is worth keeping an eye out for.
Also, none of the equity charts, including these, say blow off top any time soon. Not sure why there's so much talk of a world historical crash approaching. Of course a major correction can always occur, and may this year. But I would see it as a buying opportunity, barring other developments.