The thing I love the most about this blog is that the contributors are a collection of very different individuals, with very diverse views. I think it's fair to say that we're all generally bullish on the PMs, and that we have declared positions in gold and silver, but apart from that our only unifying trait is that we love debate, getting to the heart of the matter, and seeking to dispel myths and shoddy thinking as often as we can. If we see something we disagree with, we probe and challenge - including our fellow contributors' views.
Unfortunately, this approach has done little to endear ourselves to certain quarters of the PM community. Although that's a shame, it's perhaps understandable given that we're often a bit cheeky and polemic (or just good old-fashioned devil's advocates). However, what is less understandable is how a brand new PM meme has started doing the rounds: i.e. that the Screwtape Files is a fully paid-up psyops front for bullion banks.
Unfortunately, this approach has done little to endear ourselves to certain quarters of the PM community. Although that's a shame, it's perhaps understandable given that we're often a bit cheeky and polemic (or just good old-fashioned devil's advocates). However, what is less understandable is how a brand new PM meme has started doing the rounds: i.e. that the Screwtape Files is a fully paid-up psyops front for bullion banks.
The abuse in some parts of the blogosphere has been predictably banal and depressing, spiked by Brian O'Flanagan's recent question about the relationship between ZeroHedge and Sprott's PSLV. Here are a few of my favourite recent comments about Screwtape, taken from a number of sites, including ours (the asterisks are my addition, for those of a nervous disposition):
Tyberious: Those little piss ant, SLV, GLD, c*ck suckers[...]What the f*ck! They shall have no quarter here![...]I know these guys a paid shills for JPM, or whatever banks' d*ck they suck! Look nothing against homos, but these guys are whores! For all those that are new, these guys (KID D*CKINMYASS [sic], and butt buddies) pray on the ignorant and pretend that all is well, like there is no manipulation in the PM markets, that SLV and GLD actually have the metal they report to have and they attempt to spread misinformation and worst of all they f*cking do it for money!
PaidInFiat: Jeanne, eat a d*ck. How's that for an explanation? [and, later] Jeanne darc, gobble a donkey d*ck, you elf.
Silver Stacker: I don't doubt what you say, but I don't believe it either. It equates to me stating that the contributors to this blog like to suck each others d*cks and blow loads in each others faces.
Bay of Pigs: They are useless tools on gold or silver, IMO. Better off to ignore them. They have deadpanning gold and silver and supporting the MSM status quo since I can remember. They don't acknowledge anything being wrong/corrupted in the markets (especially the COMEX).
Green Lantern: That must be where the trolls go after they have finished flaming Turd on the main blog. I guess they need a place to wet their whistle also. From simply a journalistic point of view, did you notice that his entire blog is dedicated to flaming individuals/sites and point of views and rarely puts forth his own world views?
Ledbedder: Looks like the boys and girls at the other blog are green with (fake gold) envy.They think because they write "articulately" that they can fool some folks. Go right ahead, try. I honestly do not know anyone that can make an argument against the PM's not going higher over the next few years. Yes, 2011 wasn't their best, but look at the 10 years before that. Guess a decade isn't enough data to go on. That was my roughly written 2 cents as I didn't get a degree from Brown or HAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAvard. One last thing, look down your noses at us because we type swear words, who cares? Tell us you don't let out a good "F*CK" when you bang your shin on the coffee table. Liar.
SGS: Yeah. These morons, especially kid dynamite [sic] are part of a paid JP group to discredit us.
Anonymous: Screwtapefiles is just a front site run by the Bankers. Zero credibility there.
Anonymous: screwtape has zero credibility. The people authoring there have been exposed and countered many times before. It's a site of the banking shills, by the banking shills and for the gullible.
SGS: Dont come back here. You realize that I know who you are now. My tech seems shitty on the front end, no[t] so bad on the backend. You've been warned.
Lovely. What is very striking about such posts (and there are many more) is the level of visceral hatred for those who do not necessarily share their world view or - more importantly - the world view of their heroes. It is also hard not to pick up on a certain amount of deep-seated auto-erotic tension, which I imagine would be better released in a more amorous rather than aggressive way - but I'll leave that train of thought to the psychologists.
However, what is utterly conspicuous by its absence is any attempt to engage with the question at hand, to refute it through evidence, or to present a coherent counter-argument. Responses are limited to either "you're a c*ck sucker" or "you're a bankster shill".
Now that's a bizarre approach. Let's say for a moment (for the sake of argument) that they're right, and the only things we love in life are violent oral sex and getting fistfulls of dollars from JPM. How, exactly, does that refute the facts we have pointed out, or answered the questions we've posed? It's simply a diversionary tactic to avoid answering the difficult questions. So we are forced to ask: why would such diversionary tactics be used by certain elements of the PM blogosphere? If what they say is an open-and-shut case, why respond with abuse and allegations, rather than simply presenting their evidence and explaining their reasoning?
It is obvious to anyone who has ever read Screwtapes that we are not paid up Bankster Shills. We all give our time free to this site, despite us all having extremely busy day jobs and family lives. You will notice that there are no adverts on this site, and there is no donation button either. We make not one penny from this site by any means. We strive to hold the highest levels of integrity, and make full disclosures when necessary.
Sadly this cannot be said for other elements on the web. Some sites earn serious cash from their traffic, and others have direct links to those with a corporate interest in promoting precious metals. Not all sites - and I want to stress that. There are good guys out there. But suffice to say that the supposedly 'independent' content and advice peddled on certain PM sites is often as partisan and sponsored as that which emanates from certain parts of the MSM about which they scream foul on a daily basis. Corporate shills by any other name. I will expand on some of these themes in future posts.
Most of us are long the PMs, and most of us accept that there is a degree of manipulation in the PM markets. But we refuse to subscribe to the cartoon version of evil empires and wicked witches; a world of Zionist plots and farting bears. If a claim is made, such as Sprott's delivery problems or DSK's imprisonment at the hands of the Cartel, or a problematic gold bar in a vault, then we will investigate it. If we find it to be true, we say so. If we find it to be false, then we say that too.
This refusal to blindly accept all we're told, or to unthinkingly cheerlead the latest silver memes does not make us 'anti gold' or 'anti silver'. It does not make us 'perma bears'. And it certainly does not make us Bankster Shills. We value your comments, and we want you to challenge us (politely). If shown the evidence we will change our views on the spot.
We are beholden neither to the banks and Wall Street, nor to those with an interest in selling as many coins and bars as possible.
And it is that which makes us the most independent PM site on the web.
27 comments:
what's amazing is the Silver Mafia's ability to repeatedly churn out new faithful followers. They're disinformation terrorists: you can educate the old ones, but an entire crop of new ones is constantly being trained and unleashed to faithfully recite the same nonsense (typical examples were seen in the prior thread's comments:
http://screwtapefiles.blogspot.com/2012/01/is-someone-paying-zero-hedge-to-post.html
many of those who have been reading the hypster silver blogs since january of last year are starting to come to grips with just how wrong everything that they were told was (about JPM going bankrupt, about the COMEX imploding, etc)... But the new-to-precious-metals crowd takes forever to learn these lessons.
aside from all that, JeanD'arc, you nailed it when you mentioned that none of the critics can refute any of the "re-education" that they've gotten - because you can't argue with fact and reality, no matter how many times you repeat a lie.
Nice post, JdA. One could characterize the gold and silver investment community into two camps:
(1) Fundamental investors, who weigh the pros and cons of metals versus other investment alternatives and logically conclude that metals should be a part of their portfolios
(2) Metals fanatics, who have a deep seated hatred for the establishment and all that it represents and view metals as the vehicle to exact their revenge.
Group (1) can be reasoned with, group (2) cannot.
The US is not bankrupt and they owe trillions. JPM is in the same boat. Fundamentally they are BOTH bankrupt. The COMEX will eventually go tits up just like MF GLOBAL. Do you honestly believe things last FOREVER? People just keep believing that EVERYTHING will be OK. It makes them feel better. Forget the real math. I hereby disagree with the above statements..100%. It will all die at some point..EVERYTHING.
Sprott announces a $250 million offering for PSLV. Kid Dynamite nailed it.
To you PSLV holder, sorry, but you were warned. Look for the premium to fall to the 5-10% range.
http://kiddynamitesworld.com/sprott-physical-silver-trust-announces-secondary-offering/
Very nice. The premium of PSLV today was 24.5% by the way.
But we should not waste our time feeling sorry for the poor ones who bought today, but rather look forward.
PSLV now has just under 700 tonnes. When Sprott bought that silver in fall 2010, he must have run up the price by several dollars. I assume that he has no difficulty with the placement of his secondary offering and with raising the money, and so buying another 250 tonnes should yield a very nice silver chart going forward.
Victor
Victor - the price of the silver that Sprott bought for this secondary was already locked in. He doesn't raise the money and then go buy the silver later.
So if you're looking for a pop going forward, you're looking in the wrong place - the purchase has happened already.
But I'm sure the Silver Mafia will jump all over exactly that kind of false reasoning and proclaim "SILVER TO $50 in a hurry..."
I deleted my previous comment, as there's nothing really funny about misinformation. ZH owes its readers at least a heads up that their interpretation of PSLV's premium was wrong. Looking at yahoo finance, looks like premium is down another 10% today after falling 10% from it's 34% high last week.
I think now that he finally started making offerings, if the market thinks he will go up to 1.5 billion or whatever, that could be very bullish.
Kid,
alright, let's think about how he does the purchase.
PSLV does not have the cash (yet). So who it is that has bought the forward silver or that has already bought the physical?
One option would be that Sprott's umbrella holding or one of his hedge funds already have the physical or at least the forward. Then as soon as the PSLV trust has raised the cash, they can buy the physical or the forward from Sprott's other company.
That would be a cool arbitrage. When PSLV is offered, Spott himself buys PSLV. When the premium of PSLV gets too large, Sprott switches from PSLV to physical. Then, when he thinks he can raise cash for a secondary PSLV offering, he puts that physical back into PSLV and takes PSLV shares again. Rinse. Repeat. That gives him a cool 20% annually from the arbitrage alone.
Still, when he sold the initial offering of PSLV (October 2010?), this was good for a price rise until well into 2011. Again?
Victor
Keep up the good work here! Ignore their comments and don't let them get you down. The only reason they lash out with their brilliant comments is because they have literally nothing intelligent to add. They're obviously not looking to learn, they just want to stroke each other vigorously into silver oblivion.
That one site there( that I used to post at as a noob) is really just comedy... StupidGullibleSilverbugs?
Yeah, I'm an asshole... but it's true:)
The only problem with silver is that it's not gold! haha!
They wanna get my Gold on the Ceiling
Back to my hole...
DDT
Victor
"That would be a cool arbitrage. When PSLV is offered, Spott himself buys PSLV. When the premium of PSLV gets too large, Sprott switches from PSLV to physical. Then, when he thinks he can raise cash for a secondary PSLV offering, he puts that physical back into PSLV and takes PSLV shares again. Rinse. Repeat. That gives him a cool 20% annually from the arbitrage alone."
yes - that's what happened for about 1/4th of the PSLV IPO (he got it from in house, which is how those funds got PSLV shares) and it sounds like he's actually doing that this time! he supposedly sent a letter to clients saying that Sprott A.M. would be buying at least $45mm of the offering, while at the same time reminding CAnadian investors that they can buy silver at a 0% NAV premium via his silver bullion mutual fund!
Of course, the very act of Sprott buying will drive more hype, and get the suckers to buy it too, so he can scalp them just as you described.
ps - with respect to the silver purchase for the secondary - don't forget the underwriters. It's probably a very very easy thing for MS to arrange, and that was my point - the hedge has already been put on.
This may not be on the subject of subterfuge, but did I see somewhere that Louis Cypher received an award for best blog site or was I busy with my fellow conspirators collecting all that money from the "banksters"?
If true, I couldn't agree more about the work of Louis and this site.
One more thing; there is a phrase uttered a number of years ago which says, "He who controls the flow of information, controls the world."
One more reason why this site is very important!!
"Anonymous: screwtape has zero credibility. The people authoring there have been exposed and countered many times before. It's a site of the banking shills, by the banking shills and for the gullible."
sounds like something prepared from a PR department. I'm not being sarcastic.
Physical gold advocate but do have some physical silver and thus didn't spend much time thinking twice about what I thought were generally understood silver facts.
From where I sit now, I am amazed at the disinformation. And I may somewhat understand how it happens. KWN (Sprott, Embry, Turk, etc.) GATA (usually a link to KWN)/Max Keiser/Ted Butler/SGS/Turd/Silverdoctors...everyone is repeating the same information including posters on websites. Some might not have any other motive then to help and likely believe in the disinformation and are just passing along information for what they believe is true. There's others, most notably the 'guru's' who should and imo, do know better, and play along to keep the story going. BEWARE wherever there's a financial interest at play.
If someone higher up the chain & with whatever motive can frame a fact/issue, it will inevitably lead itself down the communications pyramid and eventually to a 99% majority opinion. Especially for the very small but growing silver community. Unfortunately, as KD pointed out, as more and more new entrants join the silver community, they are immediately embedded with what they believe are facts but what really is disinformation. Helpless against a sea of disinformation.
The 1% or less actually challenge those facts.
And the funny part? I probably only know a very low % of what's really going on. Each day goes by I learn more. That's great if you're a passive holder of physical but if you're trading and/or loading up on physical silver at the highs before a big drop or for 4 digit silver or whatever, might be severely disappointed and may lose a lot of money on the way. You need more information and understanding.
One of the most ironic things is Screwtape/KD are willing to help anyone who have questions. They want you to be informed with correct facts or at worst, a different viewpoint so you can test what you believe is your correct viewpoint.
Victor,
I think you are overestimating the effect of at 700t purchase on the price/market. Certainly you wouldn't do this in one hit on one day, but that amount could be fed in without too much impact if done right.
FYI, in the silver market the minimum trading "unit" is the Lakh which is 100,000oz as in bullion bank trader 1 to trader 2 "what is your price to sell 5 lakh". That should tell you something about the size of the market. 700t is only 225 lakh.
Thanks, Bron. Well, I still wonder where the price increase starting in September 2010 came from. Did Sprott just correctly see the trend take off and then just jump on for the ride? If his 700 tonnes did not move the price, then the coin crazy Keisers certainly did not do that either, nor the retail futures traders around TF.
Anyway, if Sprott got the timing right once, perhaps he is trying it again?
Victor
Bron, interesting use of the word "lakh" - indian/pakistani origin:
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/lakh
perhaps the shortest/quickest word for 100k and hence made its ways to the bullion trading floor...wonder if lakh is the word in arabic also as spoken by the saudi's...
Victor,
Wouldn't just hype, hedge fund (and perhaps BB) buying in the paper market do it? Physical can be just a side show.
Long time lurker here, and I appreciate the smart and thoughtful analysis from all contributors.
Some here are correct, that many sites simply pass information around, feeding it to the blind believers, however, many visitors to the sites mentioned also have a mind of their own, and actively seek out contrary information.
The technical evaluations here and elsewhere) are fantastic, and I enjoy gaining deeper understanding of them, however, we all see how quickly (at times)they can become irrelevant.
My healthy skepticism has served me well, and although some cheerleaders may may have hidden motives, their mere existence has value. A handful have requested a voice with the most genuine of intentions.
One may avoid KWN simply because they pump metals, but the lineup of guests commenting on the macro picture are incredibly bright folks, and should not be dismissed.
I encourage all of you to add value. Share your opinions and analysis on some of the other sites more frequently. Many around the community value those opinions. Peace.
@Vincent
Many thanks for your first comment - it's always great to have a new participant in the discussion. And I'm really glad you enjoy the site.
Regarding your point about posting on other sites: we have tried to do that a bit, but unfortunately many of us are now banned on many sites. This is despite the fact that we're unfailingly polite, and genuinely eager to engage the hosts and other commenters in meaningful discussion.
Or perhaps, sadly, this is because of the fact that we're genuinely eager to engage the hosts and other commenters in meaningful discussion... :-(
All views are always welcome here, however!
Vincent, you said:
"My healthy skepticism has served me well, and although some cheerleaders may may have hidden motives, their mere existence has value. A handful have requested a voice with the most genuine of intentions.
One may avoid KWN simply because they pump metals, but the lineup of guests commenting on the macro picture are incredibly bright folks, and should not be dismissed."
I think the key there is the healthy dose of skepticism. The likely reality is many read articles and take it for face value without questioning anything. Just to use the recent example, there is no shortage of silver yet you go over to KWN and there are shortage claims. And then they'll go out and buy pslv at 34% premium and find themselves currently sitting at about 12%.
I think many do have genuine intentions; it's just that sometimes their facts/statements are misleading/false and/or are just a copy of someone else. Now, they probably believe it, and use the fact/statement. I commented on an example by Turk where he used the "closer to physical" mantra & I believe shortage statements when describing, a few days ago, pslv's 30%+ premium.
But then I figure if some skeptical blokes on the internet can figure out pslv doesn't deserve the outlandish premium, everything considered, these guys must know it too.
And so it makes one wonder.
So don't read KWN? No, will keep reading most of the articles. But an infusion of skepticism and perspective never hurt anyone.
Good points, KJ - I think we all should do our best to keep the blowhards and pop-off artists honest. In this case, KD, Brian, and others were 100% right about the PSLV premium being an artifact of non-fundamental bs and especially having nothing to do with shortage, and all the people who said otherwise need to concede the error and ideally promise to be more careful in the future. Not only blogs like ZH, but big shots like the Sprott Private Wealth CEO David Franklin (see him interviewed on BNN here, talking about how the PSLV premium meant the paper market was coming apart) -- and note he had this interview a week before yesterday's offering ... you think he new where the premium was headed last week? I wonder if any senior citizens saw that interview, went out and purchased PSLV at +34%, and lost 20% of their investment in days.
*10%
I don't comment too much anymore, but I still read everything you guys post. Keep up the good work guys!
KJ - yes lakh is Indian in origin. I assume the bullion traders adopted it as it was a quick word - remember Indian is one of the biggest gold markets so bullion dealers would have a lot of exposure to Indian traders and thus their terminology.
It is a bit hard getting one's mind around the other Indian units of measurement however.
Hey, Yukon! Good to see you're still around. We missed you around here :-)
Bron:
So, what is the unit in which gold trades on the London Over the Counter market?
Just found this site today via Kid Dynamite's great blog and have spent most of today reading past posts. This site from what I can tell so far is hands down the best source for unbiased precious metals information.
I've been a member of ZeroEdge since it's inception and I agree with the comments that they changed their focus when Tyler became their supreme ruler and Marla was put in the dungeon never to heard from again. Where Zero lost a lot of credibility with me was the physical silver premium article that this site has thoroughly shredded.
I have followed many of the silver mafia's blogs and still visit Jesse (I think he's the least offensive), KWN only for Jim Rickards and Zero for everything, but precious metals.
I learned a long time ago not to engage idiots with reason because I forget who said that you can never win an argument with an idiot because they'll beat you with experience.
KD also had a great post the other day saying "never tap the glass" http://kiddynamitesworld.com/sprott-physical-silver-trusts-premium-is-lower-than-you-think/
I'm bullish on precious metals and will need someone to sell too, so why educate them and make it harder for me to unload my position. These fools will ride it all the way up and then all the way back down.
I think it's admirable that you're trying to educate them, but only people with an open mind will listen - the truth is out there with this site being a great example. I'm just glad I found it.
I do have one question, does anyone have any experience or comments on the "Morgan Report" and the "Gold Stock Analyst"?
While I'm bullish on bullion, I'm even more bullish on the miners and have for the most part heard good things about these reports, but would love to hear from someone reading this blog what their thoughts are since everyone here seems objective.
Keep up the great work!
Thanks, from a new loyal follower.
@The Percolator,
Thank you for your very kind comments. Welcome to the site!
The contributors here will all have different opinions on the sites that you mention. I have quite a set of personal views about Morgan, and if I set out them out here one might think me a rather ungenerous character.
So I'll side-step your question. With any site, the important things that one always has to consider are, "what is the motivation?" "What do they gain from all this free advice?" (which is pushing me in one direction only) and "How can any serious, independent mind always appear to view the market through only a single prism" (i.e. always either a bull or always a bear)?
Anyone saying that silver is unquestionably the investment of the decade is a fool, a liar or a shill (or all three). I know this, because I know that they do not know whether it will be or won't be. Sure, speculative money might ramp it up to $60 or even $80 an ounce. It might equally settle out at about $22 (or less).
Gold is equally unknowable, as is any other investment, regardless of what one's macro-economics and politics might lend one to believe (or, more importantly, want to believe).
So always be wary of anyone who seems too sure of what they're advising. Any reasonable person would always caveat what they're saying, and set out the risks and arguments against their main thesis.
JdA
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