Sunday Pre-game 8/12

Every now and then an event occurs that makes me feel isolated from my species (T. tarsier). I'm talking about the opening and closing ceremonies of the Olympics. Do people really watch that garbage? Anyway, lately the PMs have become almost as boring.

Boring, to be sure, but not discouraging, considering that gold has not yet broken critical support lines, continuing to make higher lows, despite being one step (by which I mean one propaganda announcement from banquier centrale* mouthpieces) from what would appear to be a steep plummet. See below daily gold, monthly, and gold in euros.

in euros
 I posted a silver chart (and magnification) last Thursday, right as silver approached the red-dotted line. It bounced right off of it Friday. That allowed me to make a little bit of cash to pay my lawyers working on the sexual harassment case JdA has filed against me.

 But silver hasn't even cleared the $28.50 mark, from which it fell in June after closing 5 straight weeks at that point. If silver is going to continue its remarkable ascent this fall, it needs to do that soon. Its higher highs the past few weeks are not all that distinguishable from statistical noise.
Weak higher highs

*That's "central banker" in French. I am emulating Jesse at Cafe Americain here to add gravitas to our blog. Don't tell me it doesn't work!


Warren James said...

I just caught up on the general news, seems like every man and his dog now are anticipating a huge rise in the metals. Especially, ah, Mr Butler and TF. I want what they are drinking, plus some secret sauces. Go go 30-year cup & handle, but I also suppose that the big funds are buying the rumours as well?

The gold price in AUD seems due for another spike upwards, if those big 11-month patterns are anything to go by. Anyway, nice to see Gold over $1600 again :)

I thought the sexual harassment case was settled out of court?

MH said...

It's true... everyone wants to predict a pending big move in the metals. I realize the technicals support a breakout, but where is the increase in buying going to come from... especially inside the next 3 weeks as TF has adamantly been claiming. Seems to me there would have to be some major event to spur a new round of buying interest if things are going to heat up. I keep seeing predictions from the usual suspects, and I want to believe them, but they offer literally no evidence and expect people to buy the "someone on the inside let me know" line... It's getting old.

GM Jenkins said...

I agree that there's unwarranted short term bullishness in the PM blogosphere, that it's not a good sign, and that this fatuous "secret insider" stuff is getting tiresome. The charts are decidedly neutral for gold, and they still indicate a bearish trend for silver. Here's one way to look at it: after the July 2008 "bull trap" (when silver approached its YTD high at $20 following the big spring 2008 sell off) it took 2 years to return to that point. The spring 2011 sell off was even more precipitous, which means even if silver remains in a long term bull market, no-one should be surprised if we can't break the September 2011 "bull trap" high of $45 for another year. Things are so event driven that there's no reason to assume price patterns will repeat, but again, barring "secret inside information," you'd have to believe any short term pop (e.g. hard upon some QE friendly announcement) would encounter very stiff resistance in the $30-$40 range. I fear we might be a long ways from saying goodbye to $2_ silver. There hasn't even been a real stock market correction in the last year, which could cause a short term drop in metals prices. The ^CCI has been unable to clear its critically important 200 day MA for almost year.

Warren, unfortunately we couldn't resolve our differences out of court. I think now is as good time as any to let you know that you are also in the lawsuit. Apparently, she's accusing you of habitually raising your middle finger at her . . .