The (beginning of the) End

 Greetings friends!



We’re not yet at the end of the great bear market in gold (2011-2015), but I can confidently say it’s the beginning of the end.

[update 6/9] To clarify, based on a question in the comments, re: my statement to "expect a new low soon." Note that although the chart pattern suggests the next up leg in gold should begin when the $TNX/silver ratio hits the green line, in the past these points have been accompanied by a new low in gold first. So my best guess is that a new low is coming soon, while interest rates may also fall to keep the ratio near where it is.

[*update 6/15] Ratio is indeed still at 1.50 at the close of this week, with gold approaching a new low. One thing I should've made more clear is that the pertinent lows on this chart are for weekly closing prices, so a new low would be < $1158, which was the closing price the first week of March of this year. (It was also the lowest closing price in gold in 5 years, going all the way back to April 2010!) ...Working on some cool charts but no time yet to post.

Let it be widely known that I first called this 2 years ago. It actually surprised even me how relevant that post remains. 

However, I regret to say, a video I had posted at the top, the content of which I have only the vaguest recollection, but the titillation derived whereof I distinctly recall, has vanished…

Well, this one should be timeless. 

Note: Below the fold a chart that illustrates the trend in nominal interest rates since 1980, i refer to it in the comments

This is a monthly 3-line break chart, so although it looks like there's been a 3-line break reversal (see latest bar) -- that actually just happened yesterday, so it isn't permanent until June is over.

My guess is that it will remain though.

 Note how the "up" reversals recently have been singleton events. In fact, one of the reasons I like 3-line break charts is because of the fact that such cases usually do not happen (and thus i make trades betting that if there's a reversal, at least an extra bar or two is forthcoming). But with something as managed as interest rates, it makes sense that the reversals ar ejust head fakes, social engineering bs, and/or "reflief" rallies. In other words, I would not be surprised at all if the next bar is red.

[**Update 6/17]

^HUI, monthly chart, going back to its inception 19 years ago. A few things jump out. First, note from the HUI:GOLD (superimposed, gray) that other than during brief "catch up" stages that occurred in 2001 and 2008, miners as a sector have never really outperformed gold. When the cyclical bear market in gold turns there probably will be another "catch up," since it has underperformed so egregiously. But caution is warranted because note the HUI is at a very important point (dotted grey line), and if it closes the month lower, it will probably have more to drop....

Nothing interesting going with the ratio chart as of yet, still at same spot.