I saw some comments at Turd's website which called us 'bears'. That's not the case at all, in fact the opposite. But it's true we do like our market analysis without the side order of conspiracy theories. Yes, we'll 'scooby doo' our way through whatever we can - where it deserves attention. The database work continues in the background and I have some good stats and a lot of data. More on that later.
To mix things up again, I just wanted to present my current views on silver. My own technical analysis is rated BB-, but I have a vested interest in what the price action will do. First, Louis wondered recently if the silver chart looked like the parabolic part of a bubble pattern. If it is, then we're about to enter 'fear', 'capitulation' and 'despair' all the way back down. However, I've been thinking (for a while) the last few months have been a bear trap in the formation - i.e. the red area. What do you think?
But of course, the Mayday sell off was unnatural due to margin hikes, same with the January correction, so the pattern doesn't really mean much (but, what if it was engineered to look that way)? Next - someone on Turd's site also mentioned the 30-year cup and handle formation in silver (apologies, I forget who). Looks good to me!! First, a quick primer:
And then, the 30-year chart. I'm not a chartist so apologies for the crudity of this, but you get the idea.
No idea what happens when a cup and handle is 30 years wide, but in theory that means the movement goes .. up, big. But you see, it seems to me that silver is not really priced by supply and demand these days. And that the primary mover is those jolly little algorithm bots which see a pattern and then buy based on that. Regardless of the 'real value' of silver, that won't stop the chart from making itself a self-fulfilling prophecy. Once we're over $50/oz then that is new territory. Just my opinion. Don't trade based on my views. Also, note these charts don't reflect changes in purchasing power of the USD or inflation. But a pattern is a pattern and maybe those bids will come thick and fast (regardless of whether silver is a commodity or money).
