Going over the original Wynter Benton material again (research for the fan art above) was incredibly interesting. I am not ready to write off the stories – if only for the incredible amount of energy behind the writing. As for the price calls? As Louis said – if you had traded based on what they said you would have made money (yes, even with this wild market) – bearing in mind they were never there to assist you with your trading, but they needed your help to drain physical from the marketplace so they could make more money. Possibly they are behind some of the violent shorting that is going on. I am no trader but it seems to me the collective consciousness on all these blogs have found most of the answers – the most important one being that the paper metals game is all smoke and mirrors.
And, the group were wrong about some things. But Comex is still struggling to deliver silver
[[ Update: October 2012 - check out our summary of the Wynter Benton Myth and fraud conclusions. Can't believe I wasted so much time on these goddamn idiots ... I just hope Google picks up these pages when anyone searches for info ]]
http://screwtapefiles.blogspot.com/p/wynter-benton-myth.html
17 comments:
silver wasn't "due a few weeks ago." It's due at the end of the month. That seems to be a huge source of confusion amongst the silver community.
I stand corrected. Apologies for propagating this false assumption about the comex struggling to deliver physical silver - so ... they have another two weeks to make good their deliveries? If those deliveries stretch into April then is that a default of sorts?
Good one Warren.
That's pretty damn funny but I would have given them an A on movie knowledge. I'm pretty sure you are going to have Amber's Mom on the phone cussing you out.
Kid would it not be fair to say that anyone standing for delivery would want it ASAP rather than pay for storage fees and insurance?
Louis - simple fact: shorts can deliver any time during the month. you can read all of the rules on the CME website. in fact, everyone SHOULD do this, instead of, as warren noted, propagating false assumptions, which can only lead to bad trading theses.
anyway, I think that what you meant is that it might make sense for the shorts to deliver ASAP - so they don't have to pay storage fees. And yet, they don't. Ever. It's not just silver, either.
KidD,
I have seen your posts on SGS. I know SGS asked you to write a why you think SLV is OK. Are you planning to do that?
Just curious and also would like to see your reasoning.
Amber is kinda hot.. think she would go for a 47 yearold? oopps thoughts got away from me there.. Thanks for the post Warren..
notice how kid dud didn't answer warrens first question.
I have edited the post as per Kid Dynamite's observations who has a better understanding of the Comex environment. Note that I have left my original observation - that Comex is 'struggling' - that was my own high level intuitive view and I'm sticking with it.
When I first read all the information about the silver they had to deliver I wondered why a large percent of deliveries had not already been settled. I liken it to my own domestic environment, where if you have a bunch of bills due and you're a little bit short that month then the first thing you do is look at when the bills actually fall due without penalty. This itself is a tell, since if you are flush then you clear the bill backlog without blinking and you do it in the natural administrative cycle - i.e. 'on Saturday morning I'm going to pay all these bills...'.
Apologies if I mislead anyone out there about the silver delivery thing. But let's draw a line in the sand! When I was 18 I had an employer who was consistently late in paying salary to his staff. He argued black and blue that he was solvent but what he was doing (waiting for the trickle-in to play catch-up) was actually illegal (and unsustainable).
In my view once a large backlog starts to form with silver deliveries then that itself is a default, regardless of how they paint the picture - and my goodness there will be some porkies come through to cover this one when it happens - in theory they will dwarf the BS which is going on now. Draw your own conclusions - I have drawn mine.
In case anyone is tempted to trade based on my Amber report card, the report card artwork is a work of creative fan art by myself. All the Wynter Benton group aliases used a female tag but the writing appears to be male, and Amber herself said that the original name was inspired but not actual. As an artist, I was obliged to force my own visualisation - that's what she looked like in my mind. The original wynter_benton profile claims age 37 (so you might be in, sierra_hpbt) but then women tend to lie about her age, especially on the internet. Anyway, I am desperately hoping they will give us an update because I still want a glimpse behind the scenes of what they are doing out there. I also hope they contact SGS as he has asked so he can soothe his tortured soul.
But again, without regular updates from them to continue the story .. if silver does go through $40 everyone will be frothing manic as it will trigger some dramatic cataclysmic money movements and in the excitement many will forget wynter_benton. If silver drops to $30 then the similar denial stuff will happen. I am in the process of charting the claims graphically against the silver chart - that is quite interesting and I'll post it here when I do. I'm quite content to have believed the stories as a good explanation for what we've witnessed these last months. But I'll let others take the storytelling from here.
Other References:
Kid Dynamite vs SGS Discussion [link]
Wynter Benton Yahoo Messages (original threads): [link]
sierra - please - the big boys are having an intelligent discussion. Warren asked if the deliveries have to be made by April. Expiration is at the end of the month - I answered that. There are a few days after that for settlement. Take your trolling back to SGS's groupthink blog. You can form all of your silver knowledge around blatantly incorrect information - good luck with that. The guys here are interested in accuracy, and we're having an intelligent discussion about it.
Louis - I wrote the post about PSLV vs SLV already.
http://kiddynamitesworld.com/on-misinterpreting-pslvs-premium/
Did you read it? About how all of the standard disclaimers that people worry about in the SLV prospectus are also in the PSLV prospectus? About how if Sprott wants silver all he has to do is allow creations and the market will bring him all he can handle? About the reason I don't think that the common internet-SLV-fears are an issue?
by the way, Warren, if you want a "Kid Dynamite vs SGS" link, this is the better one:
http://silvergoldsilver.blogspot.com/2011/03/slv-silver-ishares-anomolies-part-6.html
although it's more of a "Kid Dynamite vs a mob of groupthink trolls" link. I went to SGS's blog in the first place because I thought he might be smart, because he recognized that WB is a fraud. I find it interesting that I can have real discussion with you guys here despite the "credit" you've given WB. (ps - I say it was a fraud because if WB was real, they could have very easily done what they set out to do. Instead, they bailed with a completely bs explanation of 80% cash premiums, which is beyond absurd)
Kid Dynamite, thanks for the links. From your material, you have definitely spent more time on the issue than I have. My own (stated) goal is to understand the hidden stuff that's going on here, so it's useful forensics.
I know you're keen to write-off the claims but with multiples of billions of dollars at stake, it is likely that some parties are not playing by 'the rules'?
Like a good murder mystery - you would also have to address 'motive'. Why would Amber have written about the 80% premium? Doing it for kicks and attention? No - quiet as a mouse. Pick a fight with SGS? No - could have posted on his board direct. Doing it to convince the silver trading community to also stand for premium? No - they (in part) originally went off the airwaves because they felt their message wasn't getting through - i.e. not many people believed them anyway.
Telling the truth because they don't actually care what people think? Warmer ... Bragging because they did actually acheive it and they knew people would tie themselves in knots trying to disprove a real (yet shrouded) event? Warmer still. Anyway, that's just me testing the internal consistency (and context) of the claims. But yes, Louis and I have some questions for Mr. Sprott as well. We are still a long way from putting this puzzle together.
what ever you say kid dud... anyone who sides with slv is a douche.. siding with slv is the same as siding with the Morge. How can you say SLV is any good with JPM as the custodian.. talk about having an adult conversation. It does not take 2 brain cells to figure that one out.
Guys lets try and keep it civil. I think it is just adding to the noise.
By the way you guys looking at the futures?
Looking pretty good. is there some big fat white swan out there?
http://finviz.com/futures.ashx
Working on an article "Fun facts about JPM" (and their mortgage practices) for tomorrow.
Warren, you wrote:
"My own (stated) goal is to understand the hidden stuff that's going on here, so it's useful forensics."
I applaud you in that effort - that's what EVERYone should be doing. Unfortunately, I don't think I've ever seen so much confirmation bias and groupthink as I see in the silver comment threads . All you have to do is look at Sierra's comments as the standard - or SGS's replies when he asked what he was missing about SLV and I politely explained it to him.
good luck.
[[ For anyone following the discussion, click here for animated comments on Harvey's blog bouncing the issues of cash premium. All the usual players - Darkmath the protagonist, Harvey the expert and a guest appearance by SilverGoldSilver. Of these, I like SGS's explanation the best - he has a knack for getting to the point (with colourful flourish). ]]
[[ The discussion continues on Harvey's forum. Kid Dynamite asks about the remaining deliveries, based on the 40m oz stockpile ... "What is the concern about getting 4.615MM ounces then". Indeed Kid, - take it a step further: 'then why the delay to deliver said inventory if so freely available?'. Old mother hubbard went to the cupboard ... ]] p.s. Amber where are you?
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