Sunday pre-game 2/19

I only have time for a quick post this weekend, as I have company. Not much happened last week.

In gold, we've now closed 4 weeks on or above the lower trend line of the black channel. Looks to me like gold wants to try $1920 again, at the center of the channel. But because the third try at that level will probably break through resistance, leading to > $2000 gold, my guess is that this sideways trading in both metals is indeed active price suppression by those who feel threatened by such an event, and (perhaps especially) the media attention that would ensue. However, note that if gold drops say 5% from here, that would begin the last part of a major inverse head and shoulders pattern (perhaps even more so in silver) that would probably get the technical funds going strong long.

On the weekly silver chart, the last four weeks have drawn an almost straight horizontal line. That to me reflects strong hands unwilling to give up their positions. I've boxed the last time silver traded so flat for 4 weeks on the weekly chart. Note it was right before a moderate move higher, followed by a four-month consolidation, culminating with the August 2010 explosion to $30, then $50.

On the daily chart, we finally touched the green line that I had patiently been waiting for (or close enough for me).

Finally, the same HUI index chart as last week. The crossing point of the green and white lines was indeed hit. It popped up from there, as expected, but let's see if the wedge can be broken to the upside.