I'd say the "pennant" (if you can call it that) is out of room, and the wedge will be in a few weeks (but usually big moves happen before the end). The downward wedge (red-dotted on top, bottom) of course has a long way to go, and if silver doesn't pop soon, it could very well test the bottom of that (which in all likelihood would mean gold falls to $1400's). Unlikely, but certainly not something to dismiss.
Of course, this is the linear chart, and the log chart has some more space and slightly different price points to watch. The fact the top red-dotted line on this chart was broken emphatically in February, but falsely, only for a day, would suggest even a breakout should be treated skeptically until a test of resistance become support.
The 30-year cup and handle chart you posted I think over a year ago is now fleshed out quite a bit and is also worth watching. The canonical bubble chart too: the longer silver stays above the purple support trend line on the chart above, i.e. avoids reverting to the mean trend line (e.g. the light blue line on my chart) the less likely it becomes that what happened in April 2011 was a blow off top (as of now, the action is very similar to spikes in 2003, 2006, 2008, etc. i.e. corrections in hindsight which also could've been called blow off tops based only on their appearance at the time, and this is especially true on the log chart, where the spikes look almost identical at first glance.) The fact that gold didn't have a similar "blow off top" in April 2011 also argues against that interpretation...
worth following the next few days:
5 comments:
End of the big wedge right? Also a great 30-year cup & handle formation, as far as I can see.
I'd say the "pennant" (if you can call it that) is out of room, and the wedge will be in a few weeks (but usually big moves happen before the end). The downward wedge (red-dotted on top, bottom) of course has a long way to go, and if silver doesn't pop soon, it could very well test the bottom of that (which in all likelihood would mean gold falls to $1400's). Unlikely, but certainly not something to dismiss.
Of course, this is the linear chart, and the log chart has some more space and slightly different price points to watch. The fact the top red-dotted line on this chart was broken emphatically in February, but falsely, only for a day, would suggest even a breakout should be treated skeptically until a test of resistance become support.
The 30-year cup and handle chart you posted I think over a year ago is now fleshed out quite a bit and is also worth watching. The canonical bubble chart too: the longer silver stays above the purple support trend line on the chart above, i.e. avoids reverting to the mean trend line (e.g. the light blue line on my chart) the less likely it becomes that what happened in April 2011 was a blow off top (as of now, the action is very similar to spikes in 2003, 2006, 2008, etc. i.e. corrections in hindsight which also could've been called blow off tops based only on their appearance at the time, and this is especially true on the log chart, where the spikes look almost identical at first glance.) The fact that gold didn't have a similar "blow off top" in April 2011 also argues against that interpretation...
Thanks for your info.
No comments yet on the new Wyntor Benton!!
Why it's Bill Murphy and to some extent Turd!
They all have deep contacts and they promis action!
http://peterlbrandt.com/should-the-inevitable-chart-breakout-in-precious-metals-be-trusted/
Jim Willie quotes Murphy's Monaco source, referring to the Murphy rumour, and Murphy replies by denying having talked to that source...
Graduates of STFU will recognise the work of graduates of MSU*
* Making Shit Up
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