Don't be disheartened by what Comex reports, stay resolute! After some deliveration, this is what our group agreed upon. No matter what Comex "reports", we will be standing for delivery for physical silver and will be encouraging all our contacts to do the same.
The INTEGRITY of the data has been a real issue since Feb 8 and it has only gotten worse since then.
Consider the following preliminary data from the Comex. This link will show PRELIMINARY data until 12pm EST or so. After that the link will show FINAL data when you click it.
http://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/S...
Right now, the PRELIMINARY Mar OI shows a decline of (-2329) to 57522 and the May OI shows an increase of (+4486) to 48231. Once the FINAL data comes out the Mar OI will probably show something far greater than a decline of 2329. We have no problem with this an anticipates that over the next 7 days, the Mar OI should decline by close to 50,000 contracts. What we do have a problem with is the apparent arbitrary nature of the way the PRELIMINARY and FINAL data is constructed.
What got us really suspicious was the report from the Feb 8 data.
http://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/S...
Notice that the COMEX reported that there was no increase in Mar OI that day. Believe me there were plenty of contracts bought by "new players" yet the Mar OI was conveniently offset by some supposed sellers. What is really suspicious was the 3090 contracts in the PNT column. We assure you that categoy should have been higher.
Which gets us back to the Comex data in general. We do not believe that the Comex data has been "questionable" until recently. Starting in Spetember was when we noticed that for the first time Comex reported that it only delivered a percentage of the total notice for delivery. Prior to that, the percentage was always 100 percent or higher of FIRST day notice of delivery.
We also notice that Jan and Feb options are reporting rates that are truly unprecedented. Why would Comex report honest numbers for Jan and Feb options ? Because they have too. If you sent down a notice of delivery throughout the month and not see Comex reports it, then you would know that Comex was lying. Just like on Feb 8. We know for certain that there was over 3090 contracts acquired and negotiated for privately, yet the Comex reported only 3090 PNT and a slight deline in total Mar OI for that day. Comex can do this because we can't be sure that there wasnt more contracts sold than what our group accumulated. Also we dont know how a PNT contract was reported to Comex.
Which gets me back to the basics. We know based on the Mint, the Jan and Feb options, the backwardation, other anecdotal evidence (shortage at Perth,etc..) that physical silver is in extremely short supply. Therefore no matter what Comex reports, our group will be standing for physical delivery.
Finishing the thought.
September was when we suspect that Comex ran out of silver to deliver. It is unfathomable to us that only 1845 silver contracts were actually delivered in December.
We suspect that far greater than 5200 contracts stood for delivery in December and Comex lowball the 5200 contracts reported in order to dissuade these participants from demanding a premium of greater than 20 or 30 percent. If the largest contract holder held a few thousand contrats and stood for delivery, he would have no way of knowing whether Comex was lying about the number of contracts that stood for delivery as long as Comex reported a number somewhat larger than the largest single holder.
Again we are not necessarily predicting a March default because unless you need the physical silver immediately, why not wait 2 months (May delivery contracts) and get 20 percent. We are encouraging everyone who wants to make 20 percent oe more to buy Mar contracts and stand for delivery no matter what Comex reports between now and March.
The INTEGRITY of the data has been a real issue since Feb 8 and it has only gotten worse since then.
Consider the following preliminary data from the Comex. This link will show PRELIMINARY data until 12pm EST or so. After that the link will show FINAL data when you click it.
http://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/S...
Right now, the PRELIMINARY Mar OI shows a decline of (-2329) to 57522 and the May OI shows an increase of (+4486) to 48231. Once the FINAL data comes out the Mar OI will probably show something far greater than a decline of 2329. We have no problem with this an anticipates that over the next 7 days, the Mar OI should decline by close to 50,000 contracts. What we do have a problem with is the apparent arbitrary nature of the way the PRELIMINARY and FINAL data is constructed.
What got us really suspicious was the report from the Feb 8 data.
http://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/S...
Notice that the COMEX reported that there was no increase in Mar OI that day. Believe me there were plenty of contracts bought by "new players" yet the Mar OI was conveniently offset by some supposed sellers. What is really suspicious was the 3090 contracts in the PNT column. We assure you that categoy should have been higher.
Which gets us back to the Comex data in general. We do not believe that the Comex data has been "questionable" until recently. Starting in Spetember was when we noticed that for the first time Comex reported that it only delivered a percentage of the total notice for delivery. Prior to that, the percentage was always 100 percent or higher of FIRST day notice of delivery.
We also notice that Jan and Feb options are reporting rates that are truly unprecedented. Why would Comex report honest numbers for Jan and Feb options ? Because they have too. If you sent down a notice of delivery throughout the month and not see Comex reports it, then you would know that Comex was lying. Just like on Feb 8. We know for certain that there was over 3090 contracts acquired and negotiated for privately, yet the Comex reported only 3090 PNT and a slight deline in total Mar OI for that day. Comex can do this because we can't be sure that there wasnt more contracts sold than what our group accumulated. Also we dont know how a PNT contract was reported to Comex.
Which gets me back to the basics. We know based on the Mint, the Jan and Feb options, the backwardation, other anecdotal evidence (shortage at Perth,etc..) that physical silver is in extremely short supply. Therefore no matter what Comex reports, our group will be standing for physical delivery.
Finishing the thought.
September was when we suspect that Comex ran out of silver to deliver. It is unfathomable to us that only 1845 silver contracts were actually delivered in December.
We suspect that far greater than 5200 contracts stood for delivery in December and Comex lowball the 5200 contracts reported in order to dissuade these participants from demanding a premium of greater than 20 or 30 percent. If the largest contract holder held a few thousand contrats and stood for delivery, he would have no way of knowing whether Comex was lying about the number of contracts that stood for delivery as long as Comex reported a number somewhat larger than the largest single holder.
Again we are not necessarily predicting a March default because unless you need the physical silver immediately, why not wait 2 months (May delivery contracts) and get 20 percent. We are encouraging everyone who wants to make 20 percent oe more to buy Mar contracts and stand for delivery no matter what Comex reports between now and March.
2 comments:
wynter_benton...OUT
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_J/threadview?m=tm&bn=10073&tid=387167&mid=387167&tof=1&frt=2
Thx Pete,
Got it. Hopefully everyone will pay attention to what he is saying about possibly reversing direction.
We don't want to be Lemmings looking for a cliff and all that.
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