Wynter Benton's latest, posted without comment.
update (by Warren, based on two new comments by RLP): Robert LeRoy Parker has all-but-admitted-to being the mastermind behind the Benton mystery. It seems that RLP and The Leader are in fact the same person ;) We hereby unmask his identity:
21 comments:
At least this one is less cryptic – they are basically giving JPM the choice of how they want to go bust.
Worth exploring motives again ... with the new debt deal there seems no way that $36 will ever be reached again – basically we’re set for another rally in silver like what we saw starting last October. So their new post can be considered a ‘safe’ timing, depending on what their intent is (for communicating).
One problem - in theory it’s not possible to ‘bust the comex’. It’s an empty threat except to those who believe the ‘bust’ rhetoric, which suggests the post is designed for that audience. Unless of course Benton means they would throw tens of billions to suck the living breath out of the flow of physical silver.
AS FAR AS I KNOW silver is available to the comex to meet all demands, it’s just in different places. The drawdown on COMEX inventory is in theory just an extension of good stock management – Just-in-time-delivery, with the convenience of making the market look tight.
At least, that is where my research is taking me currently.
So what they are saying based on their last message and this one is JPM is damned either way.
45 days until that derivative contract blows up if silver stays above $36 and if it falls below they will be big time buyers. So $36 is the new floor as far as they are concerned.
Expect a wild ride if that derivative contract is for real.
With all the silliness in Washington these days it's not a stretch to say the Bernank will will release QE3 at the next meeting. If so today's prices will look like a gift.
Nevertheless, It's always nice to hear wynter_benton singing her favorite song.
Agreed. The bodybag song is kinda catchy :)
Do dah ...
If they have really forced JPM into checkmate then maybe they will feel comfortable enough to tell us some more details - in the 'elementary ... my dear watson' fashion.
Funny though, isn't it - how anything related to silver always seems to end up in derivates/ interest rates arena.
if you're right, Warren, and the COMEX bust is a non-issue merely addressed to "that audience," then the motivation for their latest might relate to a comment I made the other day. AFAIC their original post seemed to encourage selling over buying (i.e. if you're goal is just to make some money, and JPM's goal is not to get destroyed - who do you bet on?) ... So with this, they're in effect averting that unintentional effect by saying: "there's a floor at $36, go ahead and buy."
Do dah ... do dah
LISTEN UP FOLKS, HERE'S THE PLAN.
I forgot to mention that due to the unfreezing process i'm having trouble controlling the VOLUME OF MY VOICE.
I am sorry I am not on the same page. I thought the Wynter Benton story had been discredited. Have you changed your mind?
And what's the fuss about 45 days? I must have missed something. Thanks for reminding me,
Victor
Hiya Victor,
So far we have only been able to discredit the 80% premium claimers on the Yahoo Boards [link].
We were never able to satisfactorily (i.e. with conclusive proof) completely debunk the Wynter Benton claims. We are trying.
As my understanding of the silver market grows, the less water the Benton stories hold ... but that was part of the problem - whoever has set up the Benton story has advanced market knowledge and enough linguistic spin to pass off fiction as fact in a semi-believable manner, at least to their target audience.
In the last week, Benton is back with a 2nd messages about derivatives [ link ], effectively holding JPMorgan to ransom and we're trying to work out the reasons why they would choose to reappear at this time, with this specific message.
Current leading theories are good-old-market-moving however because the benefit of the doubt exists, there is still a chance they are the real deal. Specifically because we believe that there is a real, weird relationship between the price of silver and deritatives/interest-rates/treasury-bonds [ original link ].
If Amber would come and give a bit more detail then that may give things a bit more credence, but otherwise we're all too busy, life is too short and possibly the best thing this time around is just to poke fun at random claims made on the Yahoo finance message boards. :)
The remaining 45 days (yep, we're keeping track) is in relation to Benton's claim on the 13th July, that holding the price over $36 for 60 consecutive days would trigger some massive derivatives payout - presumably due to the way some contract (??) has been constructed. I think AGoldHamster did the best analysis on this [ link ] but we don't collectively know enough detail about how that works, or even if it's a buy or sell signal. GM has pointed out that their most recent message (this post) is technically a 'buy' signal because the Benton group is inferring a floor at $36/ounce silver.
If the price action continues, then I think we're going to see the price movement in silver as a bear trap, and I have a suspicion that Benton is part of drawing that on the chart. It also means we get to go past $50/ounce this time.
Just my two cents.
We did also debunk 'Trinity B', [link], although that wasn't really us debunking - Trinity B had a conscience and a good heart.
Warren - I'm confused: why do you draw conclusions about anything related to derivatives from GM Jenkins's 10Y Treasury Yld vs Silver chart? Rates: yes. Derivatives: no.
Hi Kid Dynamite,
I admit that my conclusion of a silver-derivatives link is not based on the 10Y Treasury chat by GM. I also admit that my knowledge of all these high-powered financial instruments is but a small fraction of yours and probably everyone else's at the minute. I normally formulate a thesis and then work towards proving or disproving. Intuitively (generally) I do sniff out relationships between data (that's what I do for my day job).
I am of the opinion that SLV has 100% of the silver that they claim to have, but I would be a fool not to assume that those 317 million ounces are not used in some kind of derivatives structure.
While I don't currently have the expertise to describe the exact relationship, I am slowly refining my financial world view which now includes both politics and ENERGY.
I keep a small worm farm for compost and sometimes the worms get all knotted up in a ball and they can stay tangled up that way even if you pull them out. The modern world of finance looks very similar in my eyes, everything is linked to something else but now it's so tightly intertwined that the structure can stand on its own even when the initial supports are pulled away.
That's the long answer. Short answer. Rates: yes. Derivatives: no - okay I agree, and further admit I have no detailed knowledge to back up my view. But I will, soon. I'm playin' catchup :)
kind regards,
Warren
Thanks, Warren.
I thought the original version was that they had entered a wager that silver would not outpace inflation (whatever that means - US CPI?). Now the claim is that they have underwritten a sort of binary option at 36? So large a volume that it would be a danger for them?
If this were true and they were indeed worried, they would probably try to hedge this mishap as much as they still can. You should be able to see a signature of this hedging attempt as we get closer to the end of the 60 day period.
For example, they could buy a huge number of calls just below 36 and sell calls above 36 in the market (or sell puts above 36 and buy puts below 36). If this were the dominant long position in the market and silver would ever get close to the upper strike before the deadline, it would more or less immediately gap down to the lower strike.
WB and friends would probably be able to buy well under 36 in this case.
Victor
"I am of the opinion that SLV has 100% of the silver that they claim to have, but I would be a fool not to assume that those 317 million ounces are not used in some kind of derivatives structure."
I don't know why such an assumption would make you a fool - quite the contrary - and I don't know what kind of "derivatives structure" you're conjuring up in your mind. feel free to email me with questions.
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Business_%26_Finance/Investments/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_J/threadview?bn=10073&tid=400771&mid=400771
"The correct price of silver is infinity 4-Aug-11 10:09 am
Morituri te
Salutamas ese
You're going home in a body bag, do da, do da......"
Hmmm, it seems they are stepping up the rhetoric again. I'll say one thing for Wynter. Their timing is perfect.
I wonder whether you folks here got the message?
That 2nd message was clearly a warning flag - for as well as JPM, but also for us - "because form here on JPM will attack".
I got out of PMs yesterday around half an hour before the high happened. Again saved a bunch and gained some thru shorts due to this WB group.
Based on that 2nd message.
The 3rd was the confirmation - "here we go" - as predicted.
Now 36 is target. If "they" are able to bring it down that much. The message was quite clear.
Buy around 36 with tight stop.
Suppose our friends are even short here - just to use the proceeds to go long again near 36.
BTW Cyclist has turndate for PMs around August 23. That could be right or wrong - i do not give much on it.
These guys are soooo incredible ... anyway they are the greatest gift of my life ... at least in financial regards.
additional ... there are 2 strategies:
1) Try to hold it around 2 bucks above 36 ... 38 seems pretty important to me. There is strong support.
2) Just let it fall and fall - and step in with full power around 36.
Not sure which strategy they will follow.
Maybe the same game. Buy near 38 or slightly below (you need to exactly study resistances there!) with tight stop below.
Guess I would prefer the 2nd choice. 36 is an exact number. A stop of 35.97 (depending on your spread) does the trick. Support around 38 is far from that clear. And a goal of 36 for the short rewards double the profits.
So why fight a battle at 38?
But I could be wrong.
So DYOD
Thanks Hammy,
Just listening to Marc Faber this morning and he is expecting a rebound either today or in the next trading day in the DOW etc. and to sell into it. Use any weakness to buy Gold and Silver.
He is also looking for QE3 to bring the broader markets back near the highs. latest october before it's official.
Take a look at GM's post from last night.
The bottom line is physical holders need to hold on through the volatility.
Is Cyclist still posting on Kitco? I haven't looked at kitco.com in a while.
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