WB Claim Reminder (Guest Post by Warren)

NOTE: WYNTER BENTON HAS BEEN DISCREDITED. ARTICLE LEFT HERE FOR HISTORICAL REFERENCE ONLY.


Recent: Dancing on Wynter Bentons Grave (Nov 2011) and Wynter Benton Report Card Semester 2 (Sep 2011)




For those quick to write the obituary of the Wynter Benton myth, here are some condensed claims (which are on public record!) you can refer to, specifically in relation to some up-coming dates. I am no trader but my day job is to look for patterns in data and analyze structure. The Wynter Benton Group in their last messages started to get more serious in their attempt to get noticed, and started giving some specifics about their plans. Here are the main ones … put here for easy reference and close scrutiny. I too will call it a day on the WB thing at the point where I am sufficiently satisfied that the claims are discredited (so far, not the case).


Direct Claim: 14-Feb-2011 for middle-of-March silver price
"Ecomm, since you were defining whether we "won" or lost versus blythe last week, I will define what our group considers winning and losing. If by the middle of march or sooner, silver trades above $37, then we consider it a win. If during this timeframe, silver trades between $33-$37, then we consider it a draw. If silver does not trade over $33 during this timeframe, then we will consider this a defeat.
That is our standard definition for a win, a lost, and a draw versus Blythe
."



So … let’s take the ‘deadline’ to mean close on Tuesday 15th March. I also want to point out that this claim was made when the silver price was hovering ~$30 and was still a dollar below the Dec-2010 highs (having just experienced the substantial January correction). Also note: Three weeks prior, the same wynter_benton was a bit more bullish, with this statement: “Come March 1st the price of paper silver will be over $40 and even that might not stop the raid that is being planned21-Jan-2011, this would appear as a weakness in validity (i.e. technically they revised their estimate) although to read the context, this statement appears quickly at the last part of a reply (i.e. was written as an afterthought) and seems to reinforce only that they were intent on taking delivery of ‘cheap’ physical silver regardless of the price (this $40 price call occurred around the start of Turd’s Bottom).

Other Claim about March 1st: (my paraphrase) Comex won’t default just yet (why kill the ‘golden goose’) but they would certainly be doing a ‘raid’ on all their silver at such a ‘cheap’ price to put even more pressure on later months. They are also interested in playing the premium game.



Quotes from wynter_benton:


  • How will this end?” “When the comex blows up on its own. We will be accepting hefty cash premiums to let them continue the game.” 08-Feb-2011


  • We are still going to raid the Comex on Mar 1 come hell or highwater.09-Feb-2011


  • No matter what Comex "reports", we will be standing for delivery for physical silver and will be encouraging all our contacts to do the same17-Feb-2011

Some Observations:


  1. My name is Warren I am a guest contributor to Mr Louis Cypher’s blog. I also have a freaky avatar which none of you will be able to guess what it is unless you have seen the picture in its original context. My disclaimer/foundation for my writing is here.

  2. Their foundation plan appears to have two prongs to it: drain physical silver and put pressure on the shorts to capitulate. When they say ‘raid the Comex’ I understand this to mean that they will grab all their physical silver from them and then use that to weaken them the following month. In their posts they talk happily about Blythe running around like a madwoman collecting up physical silver to dilute the effect of the raid, which they will then happily purchase from her. From everything I can see; this is more or less happening ... i.e. the Comex is still having to deliver quite a lot of silver right about now, and they are under pricing pressure. Again I'm no trader so feel free to set me straight on these matters (e.g. can someone give a comparison of this month's contract deliveries vs. previous March months?)

  3. Leading on from this, all the latest open interest numbers and metal reports are being discussed very well by Mr. Harvey and Mr. SilverGoldSilver, you would do very well to check their sites for lots of juicy up-to-date, professional, technical and profane details. My only question (to anyone) – is it possible for a last-minute stand-for-delivery? e.g. Monday 28th Feb? This statement from wynter_benton: "... our group will be buying the bulk of the contracts as the delivery date approaches so neither Blythe nor the Comex will have any idea what hit them." 15-Feb-2011

  4. If the WB group gets done in any fashion for silver market manipulation then this would be the greatest double irony in the history of the world and I will laugh a bitter laugh. To this end I hope they are taking as many precautions as they can to cover themselves. Plausible deniability, etc.

A story based on falsehood comes undone, but a story based on truth can bear large amounts of scrutiny. For me, the John Titor myth was disproven by the objective claim that 2004 was the last Olympic Games held – because since then we have had the 2008 games in China. [That was curious enough, since he may have discounted or even detested the Chinese holding the games, or even mentioned it to make a point]. Back to Wynter Benton, we here at Screwtape Files are watching and waiting. I don't think these date deadlines have passed just yet. I also don't think the claims were vague. Put the $33-$37 mid march price call in context of when the post was made.

25 comments:

GM Jenkins said...

Good stuff, Warren. One thing though - when silver was struggling to hold 30, they said silver must trade btwn 33-37 "during this time frame" for a draw. Since it's touched ~34.5 already, you could say they've already drawn, albeit weakly. However there's sill time for silver to surpass 37, if even for a day, giving them a victory in their own eyes.

Warren said...

Agreed about the draw .. others might not see it in the same light (Wynter Benton is still in most people's minds, pops up in the comments of every 2nd article at the Watchtower and SGS). Any dates/is there a 'during this time frame' link/post? (looked but couldn't find it).

As I read it they still have about 2 weeks from now to whip it to 37 for a 'win', and given the recent action it's headed there. A bull could say it easily today, but in mid-feb it would have been the equivalent of saying in 4 weeks silver would trade '10%'-21% higher than today. From what I could tell, everyone was collectively and nervously relieved that silver had just clawed back it's January losses.

Louis Cypher said...

Very Nice Warren.

DayStar said...

This comment came from 14 Feb
Since you were defining whether we "won" or lost versus blythe last week, I will define what our group considers winning and losing. If by the middle of march or sooner, silver trades above $37, then we consider it a win. If during this timeframe, silver trades between $33-$37, then we consider it a draw. If silver does not trade over $33 during this timeframe, then we will consider this a defeat.

silverto500 said...

In the context of understanding the bigger picture WB is operating in, I found those posts below highly interesting. It's about a much bigger group of billionaires trying to corner the silver market by first buying up all supply in the world:

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Business_&_Finance/Investments/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_J/threadview?bn=10073&tid=371087&mid=371087

Have a look at the whole thread since there are interesting comments from WB. She explains that (at that point in time) they are trying to frontrun this undertaking.

No one can tell whether this is true or not, but it is just too interesting that an actual shortage has been developing and that Bill Winters has set up a fund right around this time.

sierra_hpbt said...

thanks for posts guys..

Warren said...

@silverto500, That post you referenced is tricky - can anyone tell which parts are requoted from elsewhere and which parts are from wynter_benton? (I searched the yahoo boards).

Anyway, there was one from wynter where she suggests silver would trade above $40 in the two days following the comex March 1st event (seemingly due to the stress created by their group). So March 3rd will be another stress test for the myth - price of silver should be touching 40 by this Friday. Go Wynter!

Louis Cypher said...

Silverto500,
I remember reading that one and if memory serves Wynter asked him to contact the Wynter group in another post. Whether that happened or not is another story. The guy Wynter is quoting came out with his story after Wynter came on the scene.

Wynter may have been testing him or simply reaching out to another potential ally.

As far as a group of Billionaires meeting in China and then possibly going after Silver ... anything is possible but it wouldn't take a group of Billionaires to corner the Silver market. Just one guy could do it. Say a guy with an already vested interest in doing it. Possibly a guy like Sprott.

Louis Cypher said...

I should add ... most of what was posted by Wynter came from the other guy.

silverto500 said...

Sorry LC & Warren,
I had posted the wrong link, I thought I had posted this one:

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/ETFs_%28A_to_Z%29/ETFs_I/threadview?m=tm&bn=29797&tid=54048&mid=54048&tof=-1&rt=2&frt=2&off=1

Warren said...

Quick update for anyone viewing this thread: SilverGoldSilver officially slams the WBG story, based on the drop in open interest for March 1st. http://silvergoldsilver.blogspot.com/2011/03/crimexcomex-news-gold-oi-rises-100300.html. No worries. Also note that SGS (does a lot of good stuff) has a lot of followers/traffic so the WB story will now lose steam from here unless wynter_benton makes a surprise reappearance. I for one would give anything to know what the groups experience was. Note that everyone may be too busy counting their spot-price gains to notice that the WB > $37 range by mid-march is likely be hit as claimed but like anything these days it doesn't matter who is right, but it matters hugely which ideas have the most appeal. We're all long physical gold and silver right? I'll be watching and scouring for information over the next couple of weeks - comparing and matching data against the claims above. It's still cracking theatre :)

silverto500 said...

well said.

amber said...

With permission, I can update the results of our raid. It was successful beyond imagination but that "success" has spawned even more questions about the price of paper silver going forward. It was reported by SGS that he heard that on Friday Blythe was offering 30-50 percent premium and that at least 4500 hundred contracts will stand for delivery. I am here to give you a more accurate update (and a first hand account of what happened on Friday Feb 25). Our group was detemined to stand for delivery going into Monday because we were not going to take a 30 percent premium on a price of $33.50. It was reported that Blythe offered 50 percent premium. That was not even close in our case. We got over 80 percent premium. That's right. Over $50 per contract on the condition that our group sell all our contracts. Our counterparty even threatened us with the ghost of Herstatt. They openly admitted that they could not deliver even 20 million ounces to us but that if we stood for delivery they would be sure that they make delivery to everyone else before they defaulted on us which would make us 'unsecured creditors'. They told us directly that they could not allow even 5000 contracts to stand for delivery because they could not deliver a mere 20 million ounces. Like Vito Corleone said, "I'm gonna make him an offer he can't refuse." And indeed we did not refuse as this was our intention all along.

These sets of facts from our traders lead us to believe that the paper price of silver may have a difficult time surpassing $36 because if the counterparty at the Comex is so willing to pay north of $50 to dissuade people from standing for delivery yet the paper price of silver is still under $35, then we suspect that losses triggered by derivatives is the main reason for the price suppression of silver. We can see no reason why they would not allow the paper price to go up yet are so glad to pay off the comex contracts to show the world that so few are standing for delivery. In our mind, Comex could default with if as little as 4,000 contracts stood for delivery. We are very curious to see how high the paper price of silver actually trades during this run.

Scottj88 said...

JP Morgan has 75,000,000,000,000 worth of derivatives on their books. All of those derivatives are affected by interested rates.

Yes, they have a very very very big problem....

Meanwhile the news talks about their 4.5billion dollars they can't pay in their automatic robo-mortgage scam. What about the TRILLIONS of dollars that they will lose in value as interest rates increase?

Minimum Wage: $8.50
Unemployment: ~20%
Student Debt > Credit Debt

$14,000,000,000,000 National Debt
$111,000,000,000,000 Unfunded Entitlements

JP Morgan Derivatives "On their books"
~$75,000,000,000,000
Amount of Derivatives in estimated in world (a year ago)...
$1,200,000,000,000,000

That is 1.2 Quadrillion dollars... nearly ~20x the size of the WORLD GDP....

If you still think we can "balance our budget" to get out of this... I refer you once again to Turd Ferguson's motto:


The End of the Great Keynesian Experiment is upon us... Prepare Accordingly
-
Fantastic Link, I appreciate the reading. I have been thinking about the derivative losses (tied to interest rates as turd has explained).

Ron Paul knows all about this and has ideas to fix this stuff. Austrian economics with truth = the only remedy to our system... We must deconstruct to reconstruct. Imagine a world run by the people (for a while at least), and not these bankers impoverishing the world for personal gains....

http://thehardrightedge.com

-
Let's get this revolution going already...
It's now or never for humanity...

Quintus said...

Amber mentions only one counterparty. Given that numerous entities sell Comex contracts, how is it that Amber's group managed to accumulate thousands of contracts and the all turned out to be from the same seller? Smells fishy to me.

Louis Cypher said...

WB/ Amber,
Did you receive the invite I sent to you to post articles?

Louis Cypher said...

Quintas,
From my limited knowledge there are only two big shorter on the Comex Silver markket. One is HSBC and the other the JP Morgue. With the Morgue holding the majority of these two positions.

WB, I am going to cut and paste the response you just made into the articles section.

Quintus said...

Louis, there are the two 800lb gorillas, that's true, but they are far from the only players. There are plenty more, such as the Bank of Nova Scotia. It just seems statistically improbably to me that you could buy 4,500 contracts and they all come from the same seller.

Louis Cypher said...

Quintas,
Agreed, with one caveat, my guess is the smaller guys are like pilot fish on the big sharks. When they saw silver getting away from them they probably jumped to another shark. It was easy for them to unwind their short position and possibly go long. Tough to tell because I for one am having a lot of trouble making much sense of the COT reports recently.

OK, one more caveat. It would be pretty easy for anyone looking to stick it to the Morgue to wait for a big block of shorts to show up and buy those. The assumption being the big block of shorts for sale would be from the Morgue.

victorthecleaner said...

I am pretty sure the user 'amber' aboove is not authentic.

Some time between First and Last Notice Day, every short needs to deliver against their contract. They choose the date. But they don't know who the long is they have to deliver to.

This is decided by the exchange. And there are clear rules. The exchange assigns the delivered contracts to the longs in the order in which they have bought their contracts. The short never knows who the long is. Only the exchange knows. And the short cannot decide which long gets their silver first.

The post by the user 'amber' lacks basic understanding of how the futures exchange works. That post is not from an authentic trader.

Victor

Louis Cypher said...

You may be right Victor. I have no way of authenticating either the poster or the claims. My purpose is to document and discuss.

Travis said...

Because I was curious about the reference to a ghost, I did a little digging and found this........

http://www.info.gov.hk/hkma/eng/viewpt/991111e.htm

Would action like this be possible today?

Warren said...

Wow, Wynter - you know how to party hard. People of course are clamouring for photographic/documented evidence of your 80% premium claim. Once you provide that, this powder kegs gonna blow.

Warren said...

In my head @ the minute: that scene in 'The Mask' where Jim Carrey swallows the bomb. If the price of silver is tied to politics and it can't be allowed to rise, then where does the shock wave get deflected? p.s. @Randy flag, @Brian and @SilverGoldSilver, thanks for the kind words of support - back on my feet shortly I hope.

Warren said...

With the Wynter Benton Group back on the air waves (05-Mar-2011), I am incredibly happy.

NOTE: I just found some anonymous comment on Harvey's Blog, which have done a more comprehensive summary of the Wynter Benton claims than I have here. You can view their summary here: Anonymous 05-Feb-2011.

This is making documentation difficult to keep up as all the new information comes in. It appears that Amber has been given specific sanction to keep messages on this board.

For anyone out there - you so need to watch this space, things are heating up. But of course you know this already without factoring in the Wynter Benton mysteries.

I am back on deck. I will be writing. I also have some other goodies up my sleeve for you all as well.

[disclaimer - I know my post is old and buried now, but I'll punch out some notes and observations in this space in case as post maintenance if anyone is using this as reference]